Analysis of project profitability and schedule overruns using system dynamics: A case study of trigeneration project

Combined heat and power systems also known as trigeneration and cogeneration system are capable of providing electricity, heating and cooling powers using one fuel simultenaously. Even natural gas, biogas and land fill gas can be used as fuel for these systems, natural gas is the most popular and common fuel in the market due to accessbility and sustainability of natural gas. Biogas and land fill gases are often used for the projects without having heat recovery that means selling energy to grid only. Trigeneration systems are so complex and require interdisciplinary engineering study and site coordination to establish. Addition to these, effective project management is must because of requiring high investment cost which brings high risk inherently. Generally it can be said that, every project would become succesful if budget and schedule targets are achieved. In our days, competition on industry is increasing and it is specified in previous studies that budget and schedule overruns based on planned will be most probably realized for complex construction project with turn-key agreement. It is assumed that in traditinal project management approcahes, whole project can be controlled when each element can be understood itself. But relationship between project components are more complicated than specified in traditional project management approaches,. In this research, the factors that effect budget and schedule overruns of a trigeneration system projects and relationship between these factors will be specified using system dynamics approach. Then a simulation model referring this project will be created. With running the simulation the factors mentioned above will be analyzed. Thus reduction of gap between planned budget and schedule targets and budget and schedule values at completion is foreseen and it is aimed that this model will be used by project managers as a decision support system.