Seçilmiş MENA ülkelerinde Hollanda hastalığı

This study examines the phenomenon of Dutch Disease in selected Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries, focusing on the Resource Movement and Spending Effects in Algeria and Saudi Arabia as oil-rich countries and Morocco and Tunisia as oil-poor countries within the region. Using data from 1980 to 2020, the research investigates the effects of foreign capital influxes, specifically oil rents and remittances, on the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) and sectoral value-added shares. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is used to figure out how oil rents, remittances, and REER are related, along with changes in agriculture, manufacturing, and services sectors value added. Additionally, control variables like Terms of Trade (TOT), Real Interest Rate (RIR), and Trade Openness (TOP) are also included to account for other influences on the dependent variables, enhancing the understanding of external factors, monetary policy, and economic integration. The findings confirm the presence of Dutch disease symptoms with varying degrees of impact across the sectors in the selected MENA countries. In Algeria and Saudi Arabia, oil rents did not significantly affect the REER in the long term, suggesting that exchange rate appreciation from oil windfalls is not a major issue in these countries. Furthermore, it was found that Algeria's manufacturing sector remained resilient, while its agricultural sector experienced de-agriculturalisation due to labour shifts driven by oil revenues. Conversely, Saudi Arabia's manufacturing sector exhibited de-industrialisation, whereas its agricultural sector expanded over time, differing from Algeria's experience. In the services sector, both Algeria and Saudi Arabia showed limited effects from oil rents, with no disproportionate expansion or labour absorption at the expense of other sectors. For the oil-poor countries, Morocco and Tunisia, the findings reveal that remittance inflows did not lead to REER appreciation. However, Morocco experienced de-industrialisation and de-agriculturalisation due to foreign inflows, weakening its industrial and agricultural bases. On the other hand, Tunisia displayed resilience, with remittances having a neutral effect on both manufacturing and a positive impact on agriculture in the long term. The services sector in both countries did not experience a disproportionate expansion, underscoring the complex dynamics between resource and remittance inflows and sectoral outcomes. Keywords: Dutch Disease, MENA, Oil Rents, Remittances, ARDL Model