The impact agriculture on the environment and economic growth: An econometric study on the case of Turkey

This study investigates the influence of agriculture on both environmental sustainability and economic growth in Turkey, employing a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model to determine the appropriate lag order and testing the results using the Johansen cointegration method. Through a comprehensive literature review, the most significant variables included in the model are identified as Carbon Dioxide Equivalent Emissions (EMI), Gross Domestic Product per capita (GDP), and Agricultural Yield (ZG). Data pertaining to these variables are obtained from official sources such as the World Development Indicators (WDI) and cover the period from 1990 to 2020. The study compares the Johansen cointegration methods and concludes that variance decomposition should be preferred after conducting impulse-response analysis. The findings reveal a long-term relationship between ZG (Agricultural Yield) and EMI as well as GDP. It is observed that, over time, with the implementation of agricultural policies and technological advancements, EMI is expected to decrease while the significance of agriculture in GDP is anticipated to further increase. The results obtained are deemed more reliable both from an economic and statistical standpoint. Keywords: Impulse-Response Analysis, Johansen Cointegration Method,, VAR Model, Variance Decomposition