Forecasting the energy potential of agricultural wastes

Sustainable energy production and supply constitute the basis of the energy production policies of countries. Predicting the potential of the relevant energy source while creating these production policies facilitates the planning of steps such as energy production, transmission, distribution and storage, and ensuring sustainability and control at every stage. In clean and sustainable energy production, biomass comes to the forefront in countries with high biodiversity potential such as our country. Although different examples of new generation energy technologies are encountered in foresight studies in the field of energy, biomass-based foresight studies, especially for our country, do not date back to a long time. Due to the need for pioneering studies that will guide the sector in this field, in this thesis, a study has been carried out to examine both forecasting and energy potentials of agricultural products. Firstly, the agricultural products to be used were selected. The data in the literature were used for the annual production amounts of the preferred agricultural products. Then, the factors affecting the annual production amounts of agricultural products were determined by taking expert opinion. The values of these factors according to years were also found from the literature. After all dependent and independent variables were determined, linear regression analysis was performed with the help of Jamovi program. As a result of the linear analysis, an equation for the current years was first obtained. The current equation obtained is again formed as a function with the help of Jamovi program and the production amount of the future years is predicted. By using the necessary conversion equations over the predicted production amount, the waste amounts of agricultural products for the next years were calculated. An energy potential was obtained by calculating direct incineration over the calculated waste amounts. Again, calculations were made in the same way and values for biogas production were calculated this time. As a result of the calculations, it was determined that direct incineration would be more efficient in terms of energy potential compared to biogas production.