Performance analysis with technical analysis indicators: A research on BIST 30

Markets are organized platforms that provide the opportunity for the dispersion of capital, ownership in significant companies of a country, and the ability for savers to generate profits by investing their savings. However, the efficient market hypothesis is not always applicable in these organized markets, as it is not possible for all savers to simultaneously have access to all news and information flows advocated in the hypothesis. Similarly, it is not expected that every investor will have an equal ability to interpret economic and company information. In such cases, savers would need more than only intuition and logic to make investment decisions. Technical analysis, whose first examples were seen in the 18th century in the literature, was born to meet this need. Technical analysis is the process of predicting future prices by charting data such as past prices and volume, in its simplest form. Investors can decide on the timing and maturity of their investments by using indicators in technical analysis. However, applying technical analysis, interpreting the signals given by indicators, and making decisions accordingly require knowledge, experience, and discipline on the part of the investor. Therefore, in this study, the concept of technical analysis is explained, and an application is made within Borsa Istanbul (BIST) using Moving Averages Convergence Divergence (MACD) and Relative Strength Index (RSI), two of the most commonly used indicators by market participants in today's financial markets. Additionally, Moving Stoploss (MOST) is used to contribute to the literature. The application involves selecting 18 stocks that have been permanently listed in the BIST 30 index between 01.01.2010 and 31.12.2022. The performance of the BUY-SELL signals provided by the indicators is compared with the performance of the BUY-HOLD method. The selected stocks are analyzed annually and for the entire period. While the BUY-HOLD method provides the most successful return, the MACD performance converges with the market return, and the performances of RSI and MOST lag behind the market return. Keywords: Technical analysis, BIST 30, MACD, RSI, MOST