The effects of terrorism and macroeconomic indicators on international migration: A panel data analysis on upper middle income countries

People who cannot achieve adequate living standards in their country of citizenship see international migration as a way out. In addition, it is known that the phenomenon of globalization increases international migration. Many people want to migrate because of low wages, the inability to have a subsistence economy, unemployment, violence, conflict, wars, religious oppression, minority psychology and weak government structure. In addition, opportunities such as high income expectations, high personal development and career opportunities, restoring family integrity, freedom, political freedom and a more secure life expectancy are among the attractive features of international migration. The recent terrorist attacks, internal conflicts and wars in the world have increased the migration mobility by increasing the number of refugees and asylum seekers. In the United Nations' International Migration 2020 Highlights report, it is emphasized that countries in the upper-middle income group, including Turkey, have an important place in international migration mobility. For this reason, 55 countries, which are in the upper-middle income group and where there is no problem in providing data, were preferred as the application area in the study. Determining the repulsive and attractive aspects of international migration in the countries in the upper-middle income group and revealing the problems or opportunities experienced as a result of migration mobility are considered necessary in order to understand the concept of international migration. The fact that there are very few studies examining international migration in the upper-middle-income group in the relevant literature and that it will contribute to the literature in terms of findings supported by empirical results reveals the importance of this study. With the study, it is aimed to reveal the interaction between international migration mobility and macroeconomic indicators with empirical findings and to make suggestions to policy decision makers on the policies to be followed on migration. For this purpose, the effects of terrorism and macroeconomic indicators on international net migration are analyzed using static and dynamic panel data methods. As a result of the analysis, it is found that terrorist attacks, unemployment, foreign trade deficits and inflation affect international net migration negatively, while public expenditures, economic growth and international net migration have a positive effect for a period of time. Considering these findings, shaping immigration policies is important in terms of economic efficiency.