Theory of the protracted social conflict: The case of the Syrian Revolution (2011-2024)

This thesis applies Edward Azar's Theory of Protracted Social Conflict to analyze the Syrian Revolution (2011–2024), a conflict marked by its complexity, longevity, and devastating impact on the region. The study explores the underlying factors that led to the eruption of the revolution, including identity-based grievances, political exclusion, economic disparities, and external interventions. It examines how the interplay of ethnic, religious, and political divisions, compounded by external actors' involvement, transformed the conflict into one of the most protracted and destabilizing crises in modern history. The research highlights the spillover effects of the Syrian conflict on the broader Middle East, including heightened security challenges, the displacement of millions of refugees, and the proliferation of extremist ideologies. By applying Azar's framework, the study identifies the centrality of identity, human needs, and external dependency in perpetuating the conflict, offering a deeper understanding of the systemic challenges facing Syria and the region. The study concludes that resolving such protracted conflicts requires addressing root causes, including identity-based grievances, fostering inclusive governance, and curbing external interference. Recommendations include strengthening regional cooperation, empowering local peacebuilding initiatives, and establishing transitional justice mechanisms to ensure accountability and reconciliation. This thesis contributes to the academic and practical discourse on protracted social conflicts by providing a comprehensive analysis of the Syrian Revolution and offering actionable insights for conflict resolution and sustainable peace.