Trend analysis methods: Middle Firat region application

The most important issue and foreign policy of last years and future not only at our country but also universe, is energy. Considering our restricted energy sources as a country, utilizing and development all kind of energy is supposed to be within our main ideals. It is obvious that our country is poor in minerals according to energy sources distribution. At that point; our priority must be to benefit from our existing energy sources. Development about renewable energy sources at Turkey, is restricted and not well experienced yet. In the Energy Santral Installation projects (wind, solar power plants etc.) is technically supported by oursources generally, and it becomes a must to use consultancy services. Comparing this sources with hydroelectric power plants, it is obvious that hydroelectric power plants have a definite history and acquired knowledge by years at our country. Before hydroelectric power plant installation, the first thing to be considered is the analysis of flow values of the river basin from the first year measured until today. After analsys of data collected, it is considered that the values have a specific increasing or decreasing trend at specific time interval, or not. It is certain that it does not make sense to install a hydroelectric power plant at a river basin of which has a decreasing trend, so that hydroelectric power plant's life cycle would be less. In this article, flow trends are studied by considering existing five different inspection stations at Middle Fırat Region. First of all, distribution of existing flow values are been showed in the figure without any value changing. Then, standard trend analysis are applied on flow datas of five inspection stations mentioned. With first method, Mann-Kendall test, which is a classical trend analysis method, is applied and trend existence has been searched. With second method, Sen's Slope existence and accordingly trend existence has been investigated. But, the main trend analysis approach that is used in this article, is method which is developed by Prof. Dr. Zekai Şen, İstanbul Technical University, Civil Engineering Department. With his method, flow values are investigated in year/month basis for five different inspection station and trend existence has been searched.