The elite cycle of the center-right in Turkish political life: An analysis on 'Elected' leaders

This study examines the historical continuity of the center-right tradition in Turkish political life and analyzes the political rise of its representative "elected" leaders within the framework of elite theories. The main objective of the research is to explore the transformation of ruling elite structures in Turkey from the establishment of the Republic to the present day, focusing on the evolution of center-right politics from the transition to multi-party democracy onward. Accordingly, the study evaluates the political careers of leaders such as Adnan Menderes, Süleyman Demirel, Turgut Özal, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan through a comparative analysis based on the "elite cycle" approach derived from the "elite circulation" concept developed by Vilfredo Pareto. The research demonstrates that the center-right in Turkey has evolved beyond a mere ideology into an entrenched political tradition shaped by its connection with the people, its political culture, and its understanding of social legitimacy. This tradition has persisted in various forms across different periods. Menderes's populist, development-oriented approach, Demirel's blend of technical expertise and popular leadership, Özal's neoliberal vision of transformation, and Erdoğan's charismatic, grassroots-based political organization all represent different manifestations of this continuity. Each of these leaders, operating within the specific social and political dynamics of their time, contributed to reshaping Turkey's elite structure. Within this broader framework, the study aims to explain the balance between continuity and change within center-right politics through historical data and analytical insights. Employing a qualitative methodology, the study combines historical-sociological analysis, document review, and literature research. Its scope encompasses the period from the transition to multi-party politics to the present, focusing on four major center-right parties - Democrat Party (DP), Justice Party (AP), Motherland Party (ANAP), and Justice and Development Party (AK Parti) - and their respective leaders. The analysis assesses the ideological boundaries, representational patterns, and societal relations of the center-right tradition within the perspectives of classical and modern elite theories. The findings reveal that the institutional and cultural continuity of the Turkish center-right is closely linked to the personal characteristics of its elected leaders and their capacity to construct social legitimacy. Accordingly, the historical trajectory of the center-right reflects a continuous reconfiguration of elite structures through the dynamics of representation and popular connection. The populist political style initiated by Menderes became institutionalized under Demirel, redefined through economic modernization and neoliberal policies during Özal's era, and merged with conservative populism in Erdoğan's period to form the contemporary shape of the center-right. This process represents a distinct example of what Pareto termed the "circulation of elites," illustrating its persistence within the context of Turkish political life. Keywords: Turkish Center-Right Politics, Elite Theories, Elite Circulation, Elite Cycle, Pareto, Adnan Menderes, Süleyman Demirel, Turgut Özal, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.