Determinants of private pension system indicators in Turkey

In addition to the retirement income provided by the social security system, which is publicly operated, individual annuity insurance which is used to generate side income during the retirement period of the participants, gives individuals a chance to accumulate their savings and take advantage of these savings. In the individual annuity insurance, which is based on the long-term savings, the participants can get the fund income by directing the contributions paid regularly by the participants to investment. The individual annuity insurance becomes an alternative investment tool for the participants through this feature. Because individual annuity insurance allows its participants to invest their savings, this system should be analyzed with the macroeconomic and financial variables. In the study, the effect of the variables that are effective in the development of the private pension system, which has been operating as a part and complement of the social security system since 2003, on the system has been investigated. The monthly values of the stock market index, exchange rate, interest rate, consumer price index (CPI) variables, which are thought to affect the savings and saving habits of individuals, were used. The effects of these variables on the changes in the number of certificates and the amount of contributions, which are the leading indicators of the private pension system, were examined using the data for the 2013/January-2021/December periods. The relationship of each of the leading indicators of the private pension system, which is taken as a dependent variable in the study, with the macroeconomic and financial variables, which are taken as independent variables, has been examined by creating two different models. As a result of the ADF unit root test performed to determine the stationarity of the data, it was determined that the most appropriate model to be used was the ARDL bounds test. As a result of the study; It has been determined that the interest rate negatively affects the contribution amount in the long run. The relationships found as a result of the Toda Yamamoto Causality Test, which is used to examine the causality relationship between the variables, are shown in a table.