Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis in Turkey: Forecast and Granger causes analysis with ARDL model

This study aimed to test the validity of the Environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis for Türkiye. The environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis argues that environmental pollution increases with economic growth but decreases after a certain point. In the studies, approaches such as scale effect, composition effect, technology effect and model structure were examined. As a matter of fact, subjects such as sustainable development, economic growth and the environment are discussed.The unit root test results were used to determine whether the examined variables have stationarity or unit root properties. As a result of this test used, it was concluded that the GDP, Energy Consumption and Carbon emissions were not primarily stationary, and they were brought to a stationary state by taking their first-order differences. ARDL cointegration test results were used to determine the long-term relationship between the variables and a statistically significant long-term relationship was found. On this axis, Diagnostic test results were used to evaluate the suitability and validity of the ARDL model. Lastly, in this study, long-term forecasts and long-term interactions of variables are considered. Short-term forecasts made on this axis, short-term interactions between variables and dynamic results are analyzed. Granger causality results were used to evaluate the causality relationship between the variables and it was concluded that the relationships between environmental factors and economic growth were examined and carbon emissions were related to economic growth and energy consumption.