Analysis of natural gas consumption in Turkey and evaluation of its effects on natural gas import policy by analytic hierarchy process

In this Thesis, natural gas consumption of Turkey during 2008-2014 is analyzed on a daily, monthly, seasonal and annual basis. Consumption is modelled and evaluated by 3 analytic methodologies: Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Statistical Assessment - Linear Alignment Technique and Cluster Analysis. AHP is a multi-criteria decision making technique which decomposes the problem into a system of hierarchies, whereas the Statistical Assessment (- Linear Alignment Technique) sorts the compared arguments by their scores and yields the best result by choosing the argument with the highest score. Cluster Analysis, on the other hand, deals with finding subsets called clusters composed of entities within the same cluster resembling each other whereas the entities from different clusters differ from each other. In conclusion, regarding the critical role it plays in Turkish economy and energy sector, successful management of natural gas supply and demand is vital. In this study, natural gas consumption in Turkey is analyzed and optimal conditions for new purchasing agreements are aimed to be determined to set a basis for import policies helping ensure energy supply security.