Structural analysis of foreign trade balance in Turkey (1923-2023)

Turkey's foreign trade has undergone a continuous process of transformation and adaptation guided by the economic and foreign trade policies implemented. It is widely acknowledged that one of Turkey's most fundamental problems since the founding of the Republic has been the issue of the foreign trade balance (deficit). In this context, the thesis aims to evaluate the stationarity properties of foreign trade deficits in Turkey during the period 1923-2023 by examining the series of the ratio of exports to imports. The stationarity properties of the series in question are evaluated using the traditional Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test, the unit root test by Hepsağ (2021), which performs stationarity analysis on non-linear series and accepts structural breaks and non-linearity together, and the unit root test by Kruse (2011) unit root test, which performs stationarity analysis on non-linear series, the Hepsağ (2021) unit root test, which simultaneously accepts structural breaks and non-linearity, and the new generation autoregressive neural network unit root test (ARNN-ADF), which is considered a competent, multi-purpose approach tool for defining, categorizing, or estimating data sets. The unit root test results used to examine the stationarity characteristics of the export-to-import ratio series in Turkey for the period 1923-2023 show that, when evaluated as a whole, the series is not stationary during the period under review; in other words, it contains a unit root. The finding that the export-to-import coverage ratio series, which represents the foreign trade balance in Turkey during the study period, is non-stationary implies that policy measures taken to achieve a foreign trade balance may be successful. In line with the empirical findings, the answer to the question of which policy measures should be taken to achieve a foreign trade balance in Turkey is important for policymakers. In this context, the relevant literature contains views stating that it is necessary for Turkey to develop strategies to become part of the global value chain, plan the technological transformation of its industry in this direction, and establish a well-planned industrial policy supported by mobilizing Turkey's internal resources.