For the year of 2015 monthly electricity energy demand forecast for Turkey

In Turkey, as in all the World, necessity of use of electricity is increasing everyday. To meet this demand, countries are developing new policies, according to requirements the existing policies are constantly revised. Turkey has a upward trend of energy use intensity. For this reason, the priority is to determine the energy demand rise of the coming years and to balance the supply and demand. To ensure this balance, besides to encourage new plant installations; variety of other methods are implemented constantly, such as; importing energy from outside the country, supporting the facilities to produce their own energy, supporting energy production from renewable resources. Considering from another point of view, energy market is one of the most important markets in the World. In order to be one of the powerfull actors, Turkey's main adopting purpose is to increase the influence of the national and international investors in the market. With this aim, upheavals especially related to the production, distribution and transfer of the electrical energy have been realized. Foremost among these changes is the processes of privatization. Through unbundling, the process of privatization started in Turkish Electricity Administration, which was managed on an integrated structure and positioned as a monopoly until 1994. As a result of this unbundling, Electricity Production Corporation produces electricity with state-owned power plants, Turkish Electricity Transmission Corporation provides the transmission of electricity to users, Turkish Electricity Trade and Contract Corporation undertakes electricity trading and contracting, and Turkish Electricity Distibution Corporation distributes electricity by means of its 21 private companies. Together with Energy Market Regulatory Authority, which was established in 2001, this unbundling has organized electricity transmission and distribution activities. On the side of electricity production, however, competition has materialized and it has led to the emergence of several new businesses and business requirements. An estimation of the electricity that will be consumed is one of these requirements. The estimation of the demand of electrical energy, according to those upheavals, for the years to come has become more important. In the literature, there are studies on the estimation of the demand of electrical energy for future. Particularly, because of electricity power production is very big and expensive investments, otherwise, it is hard to change or removed when facilities established, being careful while calculating demand estimations, and investing right amount in right time is fundamental. If the required minimum investment is made, electricity shortage rises. If more investment is made, left waste part appears as cost. In addition, electricity cannot be collected, establishment of supply and demand in real time is not possible. Therefore, in planning studies, firstly, demand estimations should be made true. When looked official projection that is made in nowadays, although there is decreasing deviation the estimations do not include illusion in reasonable levels. Approaching demand estimations is divided 3 categories. These are; Electricity power demand estimation for underdeveloped countries, Electricity power demand estimation for developing countries ( such as Turkey), Electricity power demand estimation for developed countries. In developed societies, It is easy to be realized and calculate electricity power demand estimation. Because economic growth reached specific satisfaction, increasing year by year and change is not too much. So, there is no so much parameter or a regression analysis with estimates of electricity demand in developed countries can be estimated with little margin of error for the future. For underdeveloped countries, demand estimation is harder. Because, it is hard to determine how many population reach to electricity power and how much is energy power needed. When analyzed in terms of Turkey, one of the industrial zone of separation or biasing industry in economic development or to focus on the service sector could be choice that affect electricity consumption directly. Electricity power demand estimation, No. 6446 of electricity distribution in law with a clear statement, each electricity distribution region in its demand forecast by doing (a year 20 year forecast for 2 years); by combined estimates of demand in these regions; TEIAŞ collected by these estimates and after approval by the EPDK, Turkey will be accepted as official electricity demand forecasting. TEİAŞ shares the 5-10 years capacity projections and information that is collected with public. This project benefit from these projections. Especially, estimating the demand for electricity power is a subject that is quite detailed. Initially, estimates of long term; annual, monthly, daily, also hourly must be done. Hourly demand estimation's modeling technique is completely different than long-term estimation modeling. Most commonly used are Curve Fitting Method, Average Annual Increase Percentage Use, End-use Method, Surface Charge Estimation, Regression Analysis and Artificial Neural Networks Method. Work related to the issue is continuing in a more detailed manner. However, in practice, approximating the estimations with the actual electrical energy demand amount requires a lot of variables to be taken into account. This situation increases the error margin in the estimates and causes deficiencies or residues in the amount of electricity generated. This study was made in order to year of 2015 electricity demand of Turkey reliably. The study has been designed on the monthly electrical energy consumption across Turkey. For this purpose, a software that is used in many countries and reliability is tested, named PLEXOS software is used. The estimates made in the datas set as the energy consumption of the past year, the Gross Domestic Product, the capacity of the production facilities and the capacity of the already planned power plant has been used. Firstly, starting from 2011, monthly electrical energy consumption data until 2014 has been examined. Then, reliability tests have been conducted, the 2014 data has been compared with the software results. The percent change is calculated electricity consumption by months. By using population, monthly electricity demand and monthly electricity prices of 2011,2012 and 2013, monthly electricity power demand for 2014 is determined by software. By this verification, the software and the data results have been determined. Access has not been gained to other estimates (for reasons of comparison) due to their trade-based nature. In the verification study, electrical energy consumption in January, May, July, September, October and November has been higher than the estimations. According to monthly estimations ,in September 2014, Electric power amounts which composed were approached mostly. As for that, in May, the difference between consumed energy power amounts and executed consumption estimation is the maximum. All the data for this year has been in the confidence bound, which has been determined according to "Electrical Energy Demand Estimations Regulations" part 3, item 9.(2) "the applied tests cannot exceed %10 confidence bound". This situation supports that the software confirms the success which it has revealed in the tests also for 2015. For the year 2015, electrical energy consumption estimations have been compared to TEIAŞ's estimations for the same year. About May, the consumption estimation of electric energy is founded with % 0.5 percent mistakes which is the nearest estimation. The most different estimation is in September with %8 percent mistake than TEIAŞ Electricity energy consumption estimation. Estimations for January, February, March, June, October and December have been higher than estimations of TEIAŞ. In other months, lower values is founded than TEIAŞ's estimations.