Analysis of housing market in Turkey in terms of housing supply and demand: In periods of 1980-2016

The 2008 global crisis arisen in the United States. In this period, the banks have provided high risk mortgage credit to low income and bad credit conditions households. The global crisis emerged when these mortgage credits could not be paid by indiviuals. So the crisis affects Europe as Turkey has also negatively affected. It has also led to an increase in the study on the housing sector because of the adverse effects of the housing sector. The purpose of this study; Determine the demand and supply of housing were stuied between the years 1980-2016 in Turkey. Then, variables have been applied econometric analyzes for prospective suggestion. The study consists of three parts. In the first chapter, the conceptional framework about housing sector is generally defined. Then, it was mentioned in detail the impact on the economy of the housing sector in Turkey. In the second part of the study; Variables affecting the demand and supply of housing in Turkey was reviewed with current data. Then, during the planned period, policy for the housing sector was given this chapter. In the third part of the study; The methods to be used in the thesis were determined theoretical definations have been made for the methods. After the theoritical definations, Unit root test (ADF) was applied to study for stationary because data is the run time series. Then, the Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) was set up to make recommendations. The Block Externality Wald Test was applied to the series to establish causality relationship between variables. The results obtained by means of Variance Decomposition (VDC) and Impulse Response analyzes were interpreted this part. As a result of the study, the findings obtained by VAR analysis were evaluated. According to findings, it is concluded that urbanization rate is the most explanatory variable determining housing demand and producer price index is for housing supply market. According to the Block Externality Wald test, it is seen that there is a one-way causality relationship in both markets.