The unpredictable outcomes of external military efforts: A comparative analysis of US's intervention in Afghanistan (2001-2022) and Türkiye's cross-border military operations in Syria (2016-2022)

This thesis examines states' military interventions in other countries and their negative consequences on both intervened and intervenor parties. To this end, this study focuses on the triggering factors and negative consequences of foreign military interventions. To make such an analysis, the US's Afghanistan intervention in 2001 and Türkiye's military operations in northern Syria after 2016 were examined in detail as case studies. Both cases are investigated to identify the underlying factors preventing the US and Türkiye from reaching their strategic objectives to the full extent, as well as their adverse humanitarian and economic costs. It is argued that states embrace military interventions to realize their national goals rather than humanitarian concerns; nevertheless, these efforts cause negative consequences for both intervened and intervenor countries. The US intervention in Afghanistan and Türkiye's military operations are fundamentally different from each other in terms of motives and results. Nevertheless, both bear some similarities in that these countries have reached their tactical objectives easily thanks to their military superiority, but they have encountered various negative consequences in the long term, such as great humanitarian and financial losses and the securitization of foreign and domestic policies.