Yedisu fayi ve çevresindeki sismik tehlike potansiyelinin jeodezik ve jeofizik yöntemler kullanilarak incelenmesi

Türkiye lies within the Alpine–Himalayan orogenic belt at the convergence of the Eurasian, African, and Arabian plates. The westward escape of the Anatolian block is mainly accommodated by the dextral North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) and the sinistral East Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ), which intersect at the Karlıova Triple Junction. While the central and western NAFZ ruptured with Mw ≥ 7 earthquakes during the 20th century, its eastern termination includes one of the most critical seismic gaps in Türkiye: the Yedisu Seismic Gap (YSG). In this seismic gap, the Yedisu segment (YS) is a ~77 km-long right-lateral fault that last ruptured in 1784 (M~7.6), suggesting ongoing strain accumulation and elevated seismic hazard. This thesis reassesses the seismic potential of the YSG by integrating geodetic and geophysical constraints. Long-term recurrence characteristic is determined by historical earthquakes compiled from the Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (AFAD) historical catalogue. Coseismic deformation in the region is quantitatively determined from Sentinel-1 InSAR data, and fault geometry and slip are obtained using Okada elastic dislocation modeling. Magnitude–frequency behavior is evaluated through Gutenberg–Richter b-value analysis using the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI) instrumental catalogue after magnitude homogenization and declustering to map spatial and temporal variability. Static Coulomb stress change (ΔCFS) analysis is performed to assess stress perturbations and fault interactions using recent earthquakes compiled from the AFAD instrumental catalogue, particularly for the 2020 Karlıova (Mw 5.7) and 2025 Yedisu–Dinarbey (Mw 4.8) earthquakes. When evaluated in conjuction with published constraints on slip rate, interseismic coupling, and lithospheric structure, our results chracterize the YSG segment as a critical stressed zone with low b-values and high geodetic locking, indicating a high rupture potential for this segment.