Yüksek uzamsal-zamansal çözünürlüklü i̇kli̇m veri̇si̇ i̇le hi̇droloji̇k modelleme : Bozkurt (Kastamonu) örneği̇

This thesis integrates convection-permitting climate modeling with catchment-scale hydrological simulation to analyze the 2021 flash flood in Bozkurt, Kastamonu, and assess future flood risk under climate change. High-resolution precipitation and temperature data were produced using RegCM5 with a non-hydrostatic core, and used to drive the SWAT model in the Ezine Stream basin. Flash floods, triggered by short-duration intense rainfall and steep terrain, are among the most destructive hydrometeorological hazards. Bozkurt was selected due to its topography and vulnerability, with the August 2021 flood used as the reference event. The study aims to (1) simulate the 2021 flood, (2) evaluate runoff and streamflow under current and future conditions, and (3) assess flash flood potential. Results show that RegCM5–MOLOCH can capture convective rainfall patterns when configured with high resolution and proper domain setup, though some timing and spatial shifts occurred. SWAT was useful for general runoff trends but limited in flash flood timing. Future projections indicate an increase in short, intense rainfall events. The integrated modeling approach contributes to understanding local flood risks and supports future preparedness.