Long-term earthquake prediction in Turkey with the time and magnitude-predictable model

In order to estimate the recurrence intervals for large earthquakes occurring in Turkey, this region enclosed within the coordinates of 36◦–42◦N, 25◦–45◦E has been separated into thirty three seismogenic sources on the basis of certain seismological and geomorphological criteria, and a regional time- and magnitude-predictable model has been applied for these sources. The data belonging to both the instrumental period (MS≥ 5.5) until 2015 and the historical period (I0≥ 9.0 corresponding to MS≥ 7.0) before 1900 have been used in the analysis. The interevent times as well as the magnitudes of the main shocks have been used to determine the following relations: logTt= 0.37 Mmin+ 0.19 Mp – 0.14 logM0 + 1.39 Mf= 0.72 Mmin– 0.01 Mp+ 0.31 logM0 – 5.44 Where Tt is the interevent time, Mmin is the surface wave magnitude of the smallest main shock considered, Mp is the magnitude of the preceding main shock, Mf is magnitude of the following main shock, and Mo is the released seismic moment per year in each source. Multiple correlation coefficient and standard deviation have been computed as 0.69 and 0.30, respectively for the first relation. The corresponding values for the second relation are 0.63 and 0.43, respectively. On the basis of the first one of the relations above and taking into account the occurrence time and magnitude of the last main shock, the probabilities of occurrence P(t) of main shocks in each seismogenic source with ten years intervals, the next 50 years for earthquakes with magnitudes equal 6.0 and7.0 were determined. The second of these relations has been used to estimate the magnitude of the expected main shock.