The impact of judicial control programs on recidivism within the context of socioeconomic factors: the case of the United States

There have long been efforts to understand how interventions within the criminal justice system affect crime rates, recidivism and the maintenance of social order. In order to put this debate on a strong foundation, we may need to ask a more fundamental but important question: What is the definition of crime, why do individuals want to (or are forced to) commit crimes? Regardless of how the answer is given (Beccaria, 1764; Becker, 1968; Des Rosiers and Bittle, 2004), over time, societies, academics and scientists have begun to examine not only individual motives but also the broader economic and social environments that influence crime. Using state-level annual jail survey data from the US Bureau of Justice Statistics from 2001 to 2023, this study examines the impact of programs implemented under judicial control measures in the United States (US) on recidivism rates through weekly average wages. By conducting state-level analyses, it seeks to shed light on how these programs, which are applied to individuals who have not been incarcerated, influence the recidivism rate. Although the study is not a US-Turkey comparison, there is also an empirical analysis with Turkish data covering the period 2009-2023 in order to provide policy recommendations and to be able to take the study to the next level and conduct more comprehensive studies for Turkey in the future. However, since there are no data on these programs implemented under judicial control measures in Turkey with similar time series and applied analyses, probation rate is used in order to conduct the analysis at a similar rate and interpret the results at a similar rate. Combining market, institutional, macroeconomic and demographic factors, this study uses a Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to address variable uncertainty. The findings show that programs implemented under judicial control measures in the US have an impact on average hourly wages and may indirectly explain the possible link between recidivism.