Automation and artificial intelligence in the future of work: Composite indices for measuring the sensitivity of occupations the case of Turkey

Technological transformation brings about a multi-layered restructuring in labor markets, encompassing not only physical labor but also cognitive, social, and managerial processes. Going beyond the one-dimensional "job loss" approach in the literature, this thesis analyzes the transformation of the Turkish labor market between 2014 and 2024 from a task-based perspective using the newly developed Automation Risk Index (ARI) and Artificial Intelligence Risk Index (AIRI) models. Index parameters were determined through a Delphi study involving 30 experts; validated using Z-score, Cronbach's alpha, and correlation analyses based on O*NET and ISCO-08 job descriptions. The findings show that 18.77% (≈6.1 million people) of employment in Turkey is at high automation risk, and 14.18% (≈4.6 million people) is at high artificial intelligence risk. The fact that the majority of employees are in the "medium risk" group in both indices indicates that the transformation is following a gradual and manageable course rather than a sudden disruption. The results reveal that Turkey is in the process of transitioning from the Industry 2.5-3.5 production mode to a cognitive production paradigm based on human-machine collaboration; furthermore, they show that technological transformation creates asymmetric risks at the gender and regional levels, with cognitive (AIRI) transformation pressure becoming more pronounced in female-dominated sectors and physical (ARI) transformation pressure becoming more pronounced in male-dominated sectors.