224
Arşivlenen Tez
0
DOI Atanmış
0%
DOI Oranı
Anabilim Dalı
Essays on regulation in macroeconomics
This thesis is composed of three papers that explore the macroeconomic implications of regulating externalities. The first two papers aim to contribute to the literature on the interaction between macroeconomic and environmental policies, focusing on alternative policies to control pollution. In the third paper, we extend the discussion on price versus quantity controls to the realm of capital inflow control measures. In the first paper, we explore the interaction of monetary policy and a regulatory policy for controlling pollution within an economy populated with financially constrained producers exhibiting heterogeneity in production technology and pollution rates. Environment related components of the model include pollution externality, an abatement technology and environmental policy in the form of tax on pollutants. Our analysis is organized around two main topics: assessing the effect of monetary policy on social welfare in the presence of environmental concerns and investigating how the existence of pollution-type externality and environmental regulation influences optimal monetary policy. Our findings suggest that in the presence of heterogeneity, due to its distributional impact, monetary policy can play a role in enhancing social welfare and complementing regulatory efforts to mitigate pollution. The primary question of interest in the second paper revolves around how the economy featuring a partial cash-in-advance constraint in the labor market responds to productivity shocks under different regulatory policies and how the extent of nominal rigidity affects this response. We employ a stochastic general equilibrium model featuring nominal rigidity in the form of partial cash-in-advance constraint in the labor market, pollution associated with production activity, and an abatement effort. Environmental policies include a price policy (tax) and a quantity policy in the form of cap-and-trade system. Our key findings are twofold. First, volatility in macro variables is higher under price regulation compared to quantity regulation. Under quantity regulation, the cost of controlling pollution is positively associated with output. This channel reduces the response of labor and all other variables to productivity shocks. Second, we demonstrate that as the degree of nominal rigidity increases, volatility increases under both regulations but relatively more so under price regulation. In the third paper, we explore the impact of a capital inflow shock under different control measures. We employ a small open economy model incorporating learning-by-doing externality in the tradable sector. Under the competitive equilibrium, consumption and external borrowing in the model exceed the socially optimal amount. Under the price regulation, the regulator's role is to set a tax on external borrowing. With quantity regulation, the regulator establishes a cap on aggregate external borrowing and issues borrowing permits, which households demand in the spot market. Under both regulations, there is information asymmetry as the regulator sets the policy before observing the interest rate. Agents, however, make decisions after observing the shock. The third paper aims to contribute in two ways: First, drawing insights from the literature on price versus quantity controls, we compare welfare implications of price (tax) and quantity-type regulation (cap-and-trade) for capital inflows. Second, we point out the concept of a market-based regulatory framework for capital inflows. We demonstrate that there is less volatility under quantity regulation and, in terms of utility, quantity policy outperforms price policy in the short-run. This superiority arises from the shape of the social welfare function and ex-post variation in external debt under price regulation. Furthermore, the ranking of policies is influenced by the initial productivity level. Regarding social welfare, quantity type control performs better than price control when the initial productivity level is low. Moreover, the relative advantage of price over quantity policy declines with an increase in the pace of technology growth.
Essays on integrated macro policy frameworks in small open economies
This thesis comprises three essays exploring the design and implications of integrated macro policy frameworks (IPFs) in small open economies, particularly under financial vulnerability, nominal rigidities, and policy credibility challenges. In these essays, the dissertation develops dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models tailored to emerging market contexts, where capital flows, external shocks, and policy tradeoffs play critical roles in macroeconomic stabilization. Through theoretical modeling, quantitative calibration, and policy analysis, the thesis investigates how monetary, fiscal, macroprudential, and capital flow management tools interact within a unified policy framework and assesses the macroeconomic stabilization outcomes of various policy configurations. Following a general introduction in Chapter I, Chapter II introduces a small open economy DSGE model to quantify the tradeoffs involved in the joint use of monetary policy, foreign exchange intervention (FXI), and capital flow management (CFM) tools. The model incorporates a range of empirically relevant frictions for emerging economies, including financial sector vulnerabilities, limited foreign exchange market depth, and fiscal rigidity. The novel contribution of this chapter lies in integrating fiscal dominance into the IPF framework. This friction alters the effectiveness of conventional monetary policy and necessitates using alternative tools to stabilize output and inflation. Simulation results reveal that FXI and CFM tools can significantly enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy, especially under binding fiscal constraints, by mitigating exchange rate volatility and dampening the transmission of capital flow shocks. Chapter III extends the baseline framework by explicitly modeling the role of policy credibility in shaping the effectiveness of integrated policy tools. It includes an endogenous credibility mechanism, which allows agents to learn about the policymaker's preferences and constraints using Bayesian updating and Kalman filtering. The analysis demonstrates that imperfect credibility amplifies the macroeconomic effects of shocks iv and undermines the stabilizing role of monetary policy. However, credibility-enhancing mechanisms -such as transparent, rule-based FXI policies- can offset these effects and restore policy effectiveness to an extent. The chapter provides a quantitative comparison of different FXI rules, emphasizing how their interactions with different levels of policy credibility influence expectations and macroeconomic volatility. Chapter IV complements the first two chapters by providing a comprehensive theoretical and empirical overview of integrated macro policy frameworks. It revisits the Mundell-Fleming trilemma in the presence of financial frictions and argues for the relevance of policy integration in macroeconomic stabilization. Based on Basu et al. (2020), the chapter summarizes how different combinations of IPF tools perform under alternative shock scenarios. The chapter also presents empirical evidence regarding the effectiveness of standalone versus joint use of IPF instruments. The findings suggest that simultaneous deployment of monetary, macroprudential, and capital flow measures can achieve superior stabilization outcomes, particularly in economies with high financial openness.
Orta gelir sınıfının düşük gelir ve yüksek gelire hareketliliği Türkiye örneği: (2018-2021)
Bu çalışma, Türkiye'deki orta gelir grubu içindeki hareketliliği inceleyerek literatüre katkı sağlamaktadır. Bu anlamda, çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye'deki orta gelir sınıfının profilini sunmak ve orta gelir grubu hareketliliğinin gelir dağılımı ve gelir eşitsizliği üzerindeki etkisini göstermektir. Orta gelir grubu düşük gelir grubuna ve yüksek gelir grubuna geçiş üzerindeki sosyo-ekonomik ve demografik faktörlerin etkilerini probit modeli kullanarak belirlemektir. Orta sınıf, göreceli gelir ölçütü kullanılarak belirlenmiştir. Analizlerde kullanılan veriler, 2018-2021 döneminde Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu (TÜİK) tarafından yapılan Gelir ve Yaşam Koşulları Araştırmalarından (GYKA) elde edilmiştir. Analizin sonunda, yaş, cinsiyet, eğitim seviyesi, medeni durum, çalışma durumu, maddi yetersizlik gibi konuların orta gelir grubunun düşük gelir grubuna veya yüksek gelir grubuna geçişini farklı şekillerde etkilediğini göstermektedir. Hane üyelerinin genç olması, hane üyelerinin yüksek eğitim düzeyine sahip olması olması, orta gelir sınıfından düşük gelir grubuna geçiş olasılığını olumsuz etkiler. Aksine, bu faktörler yüksek gelir grubuna geçişi olumlu yönde etkilemektedir. Yaş ve cinsiyetin ekonomik geçişler üzerinde karmaşık etkileri mevcuttur. Anahtar kelimeler: Probit model, orta gelir, gelir hareketliliği
Economic growth, rural-urban migration and fertility decline in Türkiye
This thesis aims to explain the role of economic growth and time cost of reproduction in fertility decline in rural and urban regions of Türkiye between 1978 and 2021 under the assumption of same fertility preferences in both regions. To do this, we construct a simple two-region model with endogenous technology and endogenous fertility. The production side of the model follows Lucas (2009). On the consumption side, households in both rural and urban regions choose optimal fertility levels depending on the time cost of reproduction and income per household. We design a benchmark calibration algorithm that allows us to match regional fertility levels and rural-urban fertility differences as well as rural-urban population shares. With such a calibration exercise, we obtain the dynamics of some unobserved regional variables: income levels and time cost of reproduction. The first major result of the thesis is that the fertility rates are higher in rural areas than in urban areas. However, both regions show a similar trend of decreasing fertility rates most of the period as economic growth rises. The technological progress promotes higher income and causes to decline in fertility rates for both regions. But the rise in per capita income in urban regions is greater than that of rural regions. Finally, we found that the time cost of reproduction is higher in urban regions than rural regions. These differences are also another factor causing the differences in fertility levels across regions. Besides, the household income levels in both regions are the primary determinant of fertility decline. The results of the study have important implications for catching-up the frontier country, establishing sustainable economic growth, and reducing the regional differences.
2008 küresel finansal krizi ve küresel kriz sonrası TCMB'nin uyguladığı makro ihtiyati politika araçları
2007 yılında ABD konut piyasasında subprime kredi borçlarının geri ödemelerinde başlayan sorunlar giderek büyümüş ve 2008 yılında finansal krize dönüşmüştür. Finansal kriz, reel sektöre sirayet ederek bir üretim krizine dönüşmüş, gelişmiş ekonomilerden gelişmekte olan ülkelere de sirayet ederek küresel bir boyut kazanmıştır. 2008 küresel finansal krizi, merkez bankalarına finansal sistemde biriken riskleri görmesi ve varlık fiyatlarındaki aşırı artışları göz önünde tutması gerektiğini öğretmiştir. İktisadi hayatın düzgün işlemesi için finansal istikrar vazgeçilmez unsur olup, finansal sistemde ortaya çıkacak herhangi bir istikrarsızlık reel ekonomiye yansıyacak ve dolayısıyla ekonominin genelinde önemli problemleri beraberinde getirecektir. Ülkeler kriz ekonomisinin yönetiminde ve istikrar politikalarının uygulanmasında konjonktürün gidişatına bağlı olarak farklı politika araçları ve farklı parasal aktarım kanalları merkez bankaları tarafından kullanılmıştır. Bu çalışmada, küresel kriz öncesinde, kriz sürecinde ve sonrasında Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (TCMB) tarafından izlenen para politikası ve politika araçları kapsamlı olarak incelenmiştir. TCMB, 14 Nisan 2010 tarihinde açıkladığı krizden çıkış stratejisi çerçevesinde faiz koridoru ve zorunlu karşılıkların oldukça aktif olarak kullanıldığı bir para politikası tasarlayarak, rezerv opsiyonu mekanizması gibi yeni enstrümanları para politikası uygulaması olarak hayata geçirmiştir. Krizin 2008 yılında çıkmasına karşın, kriz öncesi Türkiye ekonomisi olumlu ekonomik göstergelere sahip olduğundan krizin olumsuz etkisi ülkemizde 2009 yılında hissedilmiştir. TCMB 2010 yılının sonlarından itibaren makro finansal riskleri de gözeten yeni bir para politikası çerçevesi uygulamaya koymuş ve Türkiye 2010 yılından itibaren küresel krizin etkilerinden sıyrılarak kalkınma sürecini yeniden başlatmıştır. Krizden çıkış sürecinde Türk bankacılık sektörünün fonlama kaynaklarına düşük maliyetle ulaşması, tüketici kredilerinde hızlı bir büyümeyi beraberinde getirmiştir. Tüketici kredilerindeki hızlı artış tasarrufları olumsuz etkilemiş ve cari açığın artmasına sebep olmuştur. TCMB, faiz koridoru uygulaması ve zorunlu karşılıklar kanalıyla bankaların fonlama maliyetlerini yukarı çekmiş ve hızlı kredi genişlemesini kontrol altına alarak cari açığı önlemeye çalışmıştır.
Enflasyon hedeflemesi ve sapmasının nedenleri
Enflasyon hedeflemesi, 1980'lerden sonra enflasyonla mücadele ve fiyat istikrarını sağlamaya yönelik olarak ortaya çıkmış özel bir para politikası rejimidir. İlk olarak uygulayan ve başarılı sonuç elde eden ülke Yeni Zelanda olup; sonrasında, ülkemizde diğer birçok ülke tarafından da başarı ile uygulanmıştır. Ülkemizde enflasyon hedeflemesi, 2001 yılında yaşanan ekonomik kriz sonrasında sabit döviz kuru sistemine dayalı para politikasının terk edilmesi sonrası, 2002 ve 2006 yılları arasında Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası(TCMB)tarafından örtük enflasyon hedeflemesi olarak uygulanmaya başlanmıştır. 2006 yılının başından itibaren, geçmiş dört yıllık örtük enflasyon uygulamalarında gerekli ön şartlar da sağlanarak enflasyon hedeflemesi uygulamasına resmen başlanmıştır. Enflasyon hedeflemesi politikasına göre, para otoriteleri para ile ilgili politikalarını önceden belirlenen orta vadeli sayısal bir enflasyon hedefine ulaşmak için yürütmelidirler. En önemli bileşenleri şeffaflık ve hesap verebilirliktir. Bu çalışmada, enflasyon hedeflemesi rejiminin temel unsurları ele alınmış olup, ülkemizde uygulanabilirliği ve karşılaşılan sorunlar açıklanmaya çalışılmıştır.
İslam dininin ekonomik prensipleri ışığında 1929 ekonomik buhranının ve 2008 küresel krizinin değerlendirilmesi
1929 Ekonomik Buhranı ile 2008 Küresel Krizi son bir asırda gerçekleşen en büyük ekonomik krizlerdir. Bu iki kriz de ABD kaynaklı olarak başlamış; sonra Avrupa ülkeleri başta olmak üzere bütün dünya ülkelerinin ekonomilerini ciddi şekilde etkilemiştir. Her iki kriz de kapitalizmin uygulandığı coğrafyalarda doğmuş, finansal piyasalarda başlayarak reel sektöre ciddi tahribatlar yapmıştır. Bu çalışmada yaşanan krizleri oluşturan sebepler İslam'ın Ekonomik Prensipleri ışığında incelenmiş ve bu prensiplerin uygulanması durumunda krizlere etkileri araştırılmıştır.
Sukuk instrument in Islamic finance
In Islam there are ethical principles in every aspect of life including finance. Therefore, Sukuk Instrument as part of Islamic finance is explored from the perspective of these principles, and potential of sukuk as an alternative financing instrument and its benefits to society are analyzed. In doing so, firstly the principles of Islamic Economics are mentioned to draw the general framework of Islamic Finance. Then, ideal sukuk instruments are elaborated according to objectives of Islamic law. Moreover, sukuk types that are designed to finance socio-economic development like socially responsible investments sukuk and waqf-sukuk are explained. Then current sukuk instrument is criticized according to Islamic law and International Financial Standards. In the last part of thesis, policy recommendations as an outcome of this research are presented to develop sukuk further as an alternative financing instrument.
Orta gelir tuzağından çıkış için kullanılan yöntemlerden AR-GE ve sanayi üretimi üzerine değerlendirme: Türkiye örneği
Orta gelir tuzağı, Dünya Bankasının açıklamış olduğu üzere ülkelerin, kişi başına düşen milli gelir seviyesi olan 1.026$ – 12.745$ aralığında uzun yıllar boyunca takılı kalması sonucu bir üst gelir grubuna çıkamamasını olarak tanımlanmaktadır. Türkiye'de 2004 orta gelir grubuna çıkmış ve söz konusu dönemde başarılı ekonomi politikaları sergilemiştir. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye'nin günümüzde orta gelir tuzağında yer alıp almadığı konusu çalışılmıştır. Ayrıca; ülkelerin gelir seviyelerini arttırmak için kullandığı araştırma ve geliştirmeye yapılan yatırım harcamalarının ve sanayi üretimi faaliyetlerinin Türkiye ekonomisi üzerinde nasıl etkiye sahip olduğu ekonomik modelleme yöntemleri ile test edilmiştir. Anahtar Kelimeler: Orta Gelir Tuzağı, Araştırma ve Geliştirme yatırım harcamaları, Sanayi Üretimi.
Finans sektöründe moralite
Giderek zorlaşmakta olan finans sektöründe, rekabet edebilmek için çok çalışmak, hedefleri tutturabilmek için çok efor sarf etmek ve işine de çokça zaman ayırmak gerekmektedir. Finans sektöründe başarılı olabilmek için her yol mubahtır, anlayışından ziyade finans sektöründe moralite (ahlak ve etik) önem kazanmaktadır. Hedef baskısı ya da başarılı olma hırsı zaman zaman hataya sebebiyet vermektedir. Bu noktada, çalışanların vicdani ve ahlaki duruşlarının yanı sıra denetim mekanizmalarının da büyük rolü olmaktadır. Dolayısıyla, finans sektöründeki şirketler çalışanlarına karşı bakış açılarını daha insani noktalara taşımaları ve çalışanlarında, kazançlarını sağladıkları işletmeleri için özverili, aidiyet duygusu içerisinde ve etik çerçevede hizmet etmeleri gerekmektedir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye'de, moralitenin gerekliliği ve önemi vurgulanmış, ülkemizdeki finans piyasasındaki yolsuzluklar verilerle açıklanmıştır. Bu çalışmayla, moraliteyi kurumsal bir bakış açısıyla gözlemleyerek, şirketler için önemi ve gerekliliği ortaya konulmuştur. Bu kapsamda bahse konu finans piyasalarının en önemli oyuncuları olan bankaların misyon ve vizyonlarında vurgulanan temel konular ile değerlerin iş ve sosyal değerler açısından ve temel değerlere uygunluk açısından değerlendirmesi yapılmıştır.
Altın fiyatı ile altın ithalat miktarı, işlem miktarı, Brent petrol ve dış ticaretin etkileşimi
Bu tezde Türkiye'nin 2000 ile 2017 yılları arasında üçer aylık külçe/gr altın fiyatı, altın ithalat miktarı, altın piyasası endeksi, altın işlem miktarı, brent petrol fiyatı, dış ticaret endeksi, USD kuru ve EURO kuru arasında olan ekonomik ilişki istatistiksel olarak modellendirilip; açıklanmaya çalışılmıştır. Temel amacımız altın ithalat miktarı, altın piyasası endeksi, altın işlem miktarı, dış ticaret endeksi, USD kuru ve EURO kurundaki çeyrek dönemlik değişimlerin bir bütün olarak külçe/gr altın fiyatı üzerinde anlamlı bir etkisinin olup olmadığını araştırmaktır. Aynı zamanda altın fiyatıyla bu değişkenler arasında karşılıklı ilişkilerin olup olmadığını varsa bu ilişkilerin derecelerin araştırmaktır. Yapılan regresyon analizi sonucu; cumhuriyet altını fiyatı, brent petrol fiyatı ve dış ticaret endeksinde oluşan değişiklikler altın fiyatını aynı (pozitif) yönlü etkilerken, altın piyasası endeksi, altın işlem miktarı ve altın ithalat miktarında oluşan değişiklikler ters (negatif) yönde etkilemektedir.
Ekonomik büyüme ve cari işlemler dengesi ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği
Cari işlemler açığı 1980'den sonra Türkiye ekonomisinin en önemli ekonomik sorunlarından biri haline gelmiştir. Cari açık yıllar içinde giderek daha fazla büyümüş ve kronikleşmiştir. Bugün halen birçok ekonomide en önemli sorunlardan biri olarak kabul edilmektedir. Bu çalışmanın temel amacı, 2003- 2019 dönemine ait çeyreklik verileri kullanarak Türkiye'de cari işlemler dengesi ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemektir. Çalışmada ARDL metodolojisi uygulanmıştır. 2008 yılında küresel ekonomik krizin Türkiye ekonomisi üzerindeki etkisi göz önünde bulundurularak kukla değişkenler kullanılmıştır. Buna ek olarak, cari işlemler dengesi TL para birimine dönüştürüldü ve daha sonra TÜFE endeksine bölünmek suretiyle fiyat etkisinden arındırıldı. Elde edilen sonuçlar, reel GSYH büyümesi ile uzun vadede cari işlemler dengesi arasında hem istatistiksel hem de ekonomik açıdan anlamlı bir ilişki olduğuna dair güçlü kanıtlar sunmaktadır. Türkiye ekonomisinde cari açık yüksek olduğunda, ekonomik büyüme oranında genel olarak artış gözlemlenmiştir.
Kurumsallaşma, aile şirketlerinin kurumsallaşması ve ekonomik büyüme
Bu çalışmayla kurumsallaşma ve kurumsal yapının (Aile Şirketlerinin) ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi, bu etkinin kurumsallaşmanın hangi araçları ile ve nasıl oluştuğunu ortaya koymak amaçlanmıştır. Kurumlar ve kurumsallaşmış aile şirketleri, farklı yollarla ekonomik performans üstünde değişik etkilere sahiptir. Bunların birincisi kurumların belirsizliği azaltıp günlük yaşamı bir sistem haline dönüştürmesidir. Bunun dışında kurumlar, belirsizliği azaltarak işlem maliyeti üstünde etkili olup ekonomik çalışmaların üretken sahalara yöneltilmesini sağlamaktadır. İkinci önemli nokta ise siyasi sistemlerin, devletin piyasaya müdahalesinin ve mülkiyet haklarının korunması gibi kurumsallaşma araçlarını ekonomik performans üzerindeki etkisidir. Bununla birlikte kurumsallaşmanın niteliği ve kurumsallaşmış aile şirketleri dünya çapında farklılık arz etmektedir. Bu farklılıklar ise ülkelerin neden farklı büyüme performanslarına etkide bulunduğunu açıklamaktadır.
İslami finansal okuryazarlık: Vergi müfettişleri üzerine bir araştırma
Kişinin yaşamını planlamak, tercihlerini elde etmek ve gerektiğinde bu süreçte istediği an istediği müdahaleyi yapabilmesi günümüz kapitalist düzeninde çoğunlukla "para" ile mümkün kılınabilmektedir. Parayı elde etme, koruma ve daha da artırma çabası ise sağlam bir finans yönetimi gerektirmektedir. Söz konusu finans yönetiminin başarısı ise finansal okuryazarlık kavramı ile doğru orantılı ve güçlü bir ilişki içerisindedir. Tam bu noktada küresel ekonominin benimsediği ve İslam dinince yasak olan bazı finansal enstrümanların İslam dinine uyarlanması ve bu husustaki finansal kararların dinin gerektirdiği inanç ve değerlere zıt düşmemesi İslami finans kavramını ve önemini ortaya çıkarmıştır. İslami finans kavramını anlamak, günlük hayata ve İslami değerlere uygunluğunun farkındalığı ile alınacak finansal kararlara uygulayabilmek ise İslami finansal okuryazarlık düzeyinin geliştirilmesiyle mümkün olacaktır. Bu çalışmada ulusal ve uluslararası ölçekte önemi artan İslami finansal okuryazarlık düzeyi ve özelinde İslami finans ürünlerinin ne kadar bilinir olduğu, ekonomik aktörlerden biri olan Vergi Müfettişleri için ölçülmeye çalışılmıştır. Türkiye'de görev yapan 289 Vergi Müfettişine "Google Forms" ile hazırladığımız anket ulaştırılmıştır. Bu anket çalışmasının sonuçlarından elde edilen veriler de SPSS programı ile analiz edilmiştir. Yapılan analiz sonucunda İslami finans ürünlerine ilişkin bilgi düzeyinin cinsiyet, öğrenim durumu ve unvana göre anlamlı bir farklılık gösterebildiği görülmüştür. Demografik değişkenlere göre en yüksek farklılık gösteren ürünlerin Müşareke ve Müdarebe olduğu; Sukuk, Riba ve Murabaha ürünlerine ait bilgi düzeyinin ise hiçbir demografik değişkene göre farklılık göstermediği görülmüştür. Ayrıca çalışma bölgesi değişkenine göre bilgi düzeyinin farklılık göstermediği görülmüştür. Sonuç olarak vergi müfettişlerinin İslami finansal okuryazarlık düzeyinin düşük olduğu tespit edilmiştir.
Finansal krizlerde erken uyarı sistemi: Türkiye örneği
Finansal krizler sadece yerel değil küresel bakımdan da büyük iktisadi sorunlara yol açmıştır. Bu sebeple küresel çapta değişikliklere neden olan toplantılar gerçekleştirilmiştir. Bu tezde özellikle Bretton Woods toplantısı öncesi ve sonrası krizlere yer verilmiştir. Akabinde ünlü ekonomist Paul Robin Krugman'ın modelleri hakkında bilgi verilmiştir. Çalışmamızın da ana felsefesi olan erken uyarı sistemleri üzerine hem metodolojik olarak hem de konu bakımından araştırma yapılmıştır. Daha sonra Türkiye örneği için yapılmış çalışmalar kontrol edilerek gerekli veri seti oluşturulmuştur. Çalışmamızda Türkiye ekonomisi için öncü göstergelerin daha önceki yıllardaki hareketleri incelenerek "Krizler daha önceden tahmin edilebilir mi?" sorusuna yanıt aranmıştır. Bu nedenle literatüre uygun muhtelif makroekonomik göstergeler kullanılarak daha önceki krizlerin öncü indikatörleri belirlenmiştir. Bu indikatörlerin kriz için ehemmiyeti kontrol edilmiş kriz öncesi ve sonrası oluşan farklılıklar tetkik edilmiştir. Belirlenen indikatörler için öncelikle tanımlamalar yapılarak faktör analizi uygulanmıştır. Faktör analizinin tanımı ve daha önceleri faktör analizi ile yapılan çalışmalar incelendikten sonra kriz adı altında kukla değişken oluşturulmuş ve model kurulmuştur. Model kriz değişkenimiz ile bağlantısı olan değişkenlerden oluşturulmuş ve modelin anlamlılığı test edilmiştir. Analiz sonucumuza göre kriz değişkeninin hangi indikatörlerle ilişkisi olduğu sonucu ortaya çıkmıştır. Bulunan değişkenlerin de hangi değişken ile en fazla etkileşim halinde olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır. Sonucunda modelimizin bağımlı değişkeni olarak döviz kuru indikatörü belirlenmiştir. Bağımlı değişken ile en yüksek düzeyde korele çıkan değişkenler de bağımsız değişken olarak modele dahil edilmiştir. Bunlar da cari açık, ödemeler dengesi ve portföy yatırımları değişkenleri olmuştur. Bu tez kapsamında saptanan değişkenlerin krizleri önceden tahmin etme konusunda olumlu etkilerinin olabileceği ortaya konmuştur.
An investigation into the effects of agglomeration economies and firm formation on the labor market
This thesis contains three chapters, the first of which examines the economic history, firm dynamics, and labor market dynamics of Türkiye. This is a descriptive chapter that observes the facts of the firm and labor market dynamics, describing the progress Türkiye has made over the years and the current outlook of the market. In the second chapter, the relationship between unemployment and firm formation is examined on the NUTS-II and NUTS-III levels. In doing so, the results suggest that unemployment has a significant positive effect on new firm formation. The analysis concerning the converse relation, the impact of firm formation on unemployment, reveals no significant results at the NUTS-II level. However, a significant negative relationship is found at the city level with 4- and 5-year lags. The third chapter is an examination of agglomeration economies and their impact on wages in Türkiye using a micro dataset at the city level within Türkiye. Agglomeration economies are measured through specialization, diversity (Shannon's entropy), competition (Hirschman Herfindahl Index), and density (employment density). Through a rich employee employer matched dataset, it is found that two agglomeration externalities, namely density and diversity, have a positive effect on wages in Türkiye. However, these findings are similar to those found in some other developing countries, unlike those found in studies conducted on developed economies.
The effects of Covid-19 pandemic on the volatilities of the dynamics of bitcoin and gold
The emergence of the health crisis, covid-19 in this advanced technological era where connections between markets, nations and economies have grown stronger than ever before, both the physical and digital financial markets were affected by the shock of the covid-19 pandemic rapidly. The Chinese financial market experienced the first consequences of the covid-19 pandemic, the shocks in the Chinese stock markets spill over to the other financial markets like bitcoin, gold and others in the world. This thesis focuses on impact the covid-19 has on volatilities of the dynamics of bitcoin in the cryptocurrency market and gold in the precious metals market. Gold has an online platform as well as bitcoin where both assets can be traded online worldwide, however gold has a physical form as it is mined physically and also used in many physical ways too whereas bitcoin has no physical form as it is digitally generated and cannot be used in any physical form, this paper argues that these similarities and differences between these financial assets play major roles in how the covid-19 crisis affected their respective markets. The research employs the GARCH model by using ARMA as the mean equation and examines the impact the health crisis Covid-19 has on the volatilities of the price returns and volumes returns of bitcoin and gold using daily data of bitcoin prices and volumes, gold prices and volumes from 9/22/2014 to 3/31/2021.The empirical results of the estimation gives evidence that covid-19 impacted the volatilities both bitcoin and gold price returns to be more volatile, however the pandemic has no significant impact on the mean values of bitcoin and gold price returns, moreover, the covid-19 restricted the movement of people all over the world, mining, transportation and physical usage of gold was affected unlike for bitcoin where is produced and traded digitally only, the results of this thesis also verifies that the covid-19 has effects on both the mean values and the volatilities of the gold volumes but has no effect on both the mean values and volatilities of the bitcoin volumes.
Inter- and intra- dynamics of prices and volumes: Bitcoin and Ethereum in the pre- and peri-COVID-19 period
Bitcoin and Ethereum are the top two cryptocurrencies in the first and the second places respectively. This study looks to examine the inter and intra dynamics and relationship between Bitcoin price (BTCP), Ethereum price (ETHP), Bitcoin volume (BTCV) and Ethereum volume (ETHV). This study utilizes the Johansen Cointegration Test as well as the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to determine the long-run relationship between Bitcoin price (BTCP), Ethereum price (ETHP), Bitcoin volume (BTCV) and Ethereum volume (ETHV) before and during the COVID-19 pandemic and to determine whether the pandemic has any effect on the changes in prices and volumes of these cryptocurrencies. The study also utilizes daily data extracted from coinmarketcap.com for Bitcoin price and volume as well as for Ethereum price and volume from August 8, 2015 up to February 28, 2021 extracted on March 1, 2021. We find that the COVID-19 pandemic has no effect on the long run relationship between Bitcoin price (BTCP), Ethereum price (ETHP), Bitcoin volume (BTCV) and Ethereum volume (ETHV) for all the specifications. We also find that the pandemic has no effect on the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum but has an effect on their trading volumes in the short run. We find that the price of Bitcoin is positively related with the Bitcoin trading volume and positively related with the trading volume of Ethereum whereas the Ethereum price is negatively related with the Bitcoin trading volume and positively related with the trading volume of Ethereum. We also find that the price of Bitcoin is positively related with the trading volume of Bitcoin and negatively related with the trading volume of Ethereum. On the other hand, the price of Ethereum is positively related with trading volume of Bitcoin and positively related with the trading volume of Ethereum. Keywords: Bitcoin, COVID-19 pandemic, Ethereum, Price and Volume dynamics, VECM.
Essays on renewable energy consumption and its transition towards a sustainable future
This doctoral research thesis aims to conduct an empirical analysis of the factors that influence renewable energy consumption (REC) and its transition towards a sustainable future. The pressing need for adopting renewable energy arises from the depletion of non-renewable resources, concerns about climate change, and the escalating global energy demand. The study focuses on OECD and BRICS economies, examining dimensions such as trade policies, CO2 emissions, technological innovation, income inequality, economic growth, capital formation, and oil prices. The findings obtained through the Augmented Mean Group (AMG) and Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimators indicate that income inequality, GDP growth, trade openness, and oil prices positively affect REC in OECD countries, while carbon emissions have a negative association. In BRICS economies, an increase in income inequality, capital formation, CO2 emissions, and technological advancements hampers the adoption of renewable energy, while economic growth leads to higher REC. The country-specific AMG estimator identifies significant inverse relationship between CO2 emissions and REC in various OECD and BRICS economies. These countries have implemented effective policies, resulting in notable CO2 reductions. Additionally, a positive RECeconomic growth link is evident in nations such as the United States, and China, indicating active integration of renewable energy sources. Oil prices have a negative association with REC in Portugal and Turkey, influenced by specific economic factors. In China and Russia, income inequality negatively impacts REC due to unequal access to renewable energy technologies. Brazil's inverse REC-capital formation relationship is attributed to historical reliance on hydropower, while Mexico, Sweden, Germany, Finland, and Norway benefit from trade liberalization policies in boosting REC. These findings hold pivotal significance for policymakers, providing indispensable insights to formulate effective strategies and expedite the adoption of renewable energy. The policy implications serve as a foundational guide for constructing a greener and more sustainable future for generations to come. Keywords: AMG Estimator, BRICS Economies, Environmental Sustainability, OECD Economies, PMG Estimator, Renewable Energy Consumption.
Characteristics of the shariah supervisory board and CSR performance: The case of selected Islamic banks in the GCC and Malaysia
This study empirically examines the effects of the characteristics of the Shariah supervisory board (SSB) on the level of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) disclosure by a total of 30 selected full-fledged Islamic banks in the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) countries and Malaysia for the year 2018. Islamic banks have, without a doubt proven to be very successful over the years, yet the question as to whether they have been able to achieve the Islamic economic ideals based on which they emerged remains to be answered. In this study, we investigate the role that the SSB characteristics play in the CSR performance of IBs. CSR disclosure is used as a proxy for CSR performance. Building on previous studies, we examined the effects that SSB characteristics such as the board size, the shariah background of its members, doctoral qualification in Shariah, the internationality of the board, and professional qualification has on the level of CSR disclosure by Islamic banks (IBs). Using multiple regression analysis, we found CSR disclosure to be positively and significantly influenced by larger SSB size, higher numbers of scholars with a doctoral qualification in Shariah/fiqh, and increased shariah knowledge of SSB members. A pair-wise ANOVA comparison between the GCC and Malaysia found no significant difference in the CSR disclosure levels between the two regions. However, the same comparison made between the GCC countries confirmed the presence of intra-regional differences vi in CSR disclosure. The descriptive analysis of CSR shows disclosure levels to be moderate (55%) in general, and critically low when it comes to voluntary disclosures. Keywords: CSR, AAOIFI, Shariah supervisory board
The impact of external public debt on per capita income: In the case of common market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA)
This study examines the relationship between external public debt and real per capita income growth of Common Markets for Eastern and Southern African countries (COMESA). The study uses panel data covering the period between 1990-2018. We applied dynamic random effect, dynamic fixed effect, and generalized method of moments (GMM) models. Following the literature, we focus on variables of real per capita income (as a proxy for growth), gross general government debt, short-term external debt stock, external debt stock (% of GNI), external debt stock guarantee, long-term external debt stock, gross capital formation as an instrument for physical capital, labor force, real inflation rate, trade openness, external debt service, and debt service percentage of export. Our explanatory variables are gross government debt, short-term external debt stock, external debt stock (% of GNI), external debt stock guarantee, long-term external debt stock, debt service percentage of export, and external debt service, while the rest are used as control variables. Data come from the World Bank Development Indicators (WDI) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Keywords: Budget Deficits; COMESA; Dynamic Panel; Economic Growth; Gross Debt; GMM
An analysis of conditional income convergence in selected OECD countries
The concept of convergence is fundamentally the similarity in economies of a bunch of countries towards same steady state or growth level. The focal point of this thesis is finding the evidence of Beta and Sigma convergence in order to verify whether there is conditional income convergence among OECD countries over the period of 2000 to 2017 or not? The concept of Beta convergence is divided between Absolut and conditional convergence. β-convergence occurs If poor economies tend to grow faster than rich ones; however, if the dispersion of real GDP per capita levels of economies tend to decrease gradually over time period then it displays presence of σ-convergence. This study applies Beta and sigma convergence econometric methodology to specify conditional convergence existence among 33 OECD member economies. According to this method cross-section dataset is required to estimate parameters of Beta and sigma to confirm conditional real income convergence among selected economies. Parameters of beta convergence is estimated by Least Square method (OLS). The trade openness is taken into account as control variable adding it to Beta convergence regression equation. The empirical results of employed models are attested before interpretation through statistical significance measurement of the econometric models such as F-test for the whole model and t-test for testing robustness of individual parameters of the model. The findings appear to indicate strong positive absolute or unconditional and conditional convergence among 33 OECD member economies for the period of 2000 to 2017. The models robustness is tested by econometric verification technics where they all emphasize on absence of Autocorrelation or serial correlation. The model is homoscedastic and residuals are normally distributed as well. Additionally, the result of Sigma convergence stipulates that GDP per capita dispersion has declined over the selected time period among OECD economies.
The impact of foreign aid, political affiliation, ethnicity and location on welfare inequality in Uganda
Foreign aid is presented as one of the tools to combat poverty and ushering in economic development in developing countries, particularly in the sub-Saharan region. Given the billions of dollars dispatched in form of aid on various developmental and poverty elimination projects, the sub-Saharan region still portrays a good example of most poverty-stricken regions with billions of its population living under the poverty line. This study assesses the effect of foreign aid, political affiliation and ethnicity on welfare inequality in Uganda between 1999 and 2016. I found that foreign aid positive welfare implications for Ugandans who responded positively to the welfare related questions. The incumbent political party supporters and members of the ruling ethnic group have higher odds of experiencing better welfare compared to their counterparts. For the incumbent political party supporters, the odds of having good living conditions was 89 percent higher than the odds of the opposition political party supporters. Also, members of the non-ruling ethnic group who live in the ruling ethnic groups' constituencies have higher odds of having better welfare outcomes compared the non-ruling ethnic groups living in other constituencies. There is little evidence to prove that supporters of the ruling political party, members of the ruling ethnic group and individuals from other ethnic groups living in the ruling ethnic groups districts have higher odds of accessing foreign aid funds hence they experience better welfare outcomes.
Evaluating the impact of microfinance on household income and business sustainability: evidence from Afghanistan
Microfinance grew rapidly in emerging countries and got international recognition for its role in economic development and poverty alleviation. Afghanistan is also one of those countries where microfinance services for economic empowerment and entrepreneurship is increasingly observed in the rural and underserved sectors. In Afghanistan, where inadequate access to formal financial services hampers small business creation, microfinance is a potential solution for financial inclusion. Multiple studies have examined the effects of microfinance in Afghanistan's rural economy, especially in the face of a very low socio-economic and political landscape. This research addresses how microfinance helps small business entrepreneurs in rural Afghanistan to improve their entrepreneurial performance and household stability. The paper fills a significant literature gap using a quantitative cross-sectional data and OLS regression models. Using the data of 211 microfinance recipients, the models estimate how loan sizes, duration of loan, age, and education level affect business sustainability and household income of those people who received microfinance loan. The findings suggest that access to microfinance increases the duration of businesses and boosting household income by receiving microfinance loan. The more entrepreneurs who were provided with financial and non-financial services, the more businesses were able to sustain and expand. This research calls for specialised microfinance programmes that support the sector specific needs and for the incorporation of digital financial services to enhance access. These results offer concrete guidance for policymakers, development agencies and microfinance institutions, highlighting the need for new approaches to tackle current inequalities and increase economic resilience.
Testing for the structure-conduct-performance hypthesis in the context of the Gambia banks profitability
Recent findings showcasing the banking industry plays a pivotal role in any given economic development, which has ignited conversations about the growth and stability of banks within academic, policymaking, research, and economic circles. The study assesses two opposing hypotheses, the Structure-Conduct Performance Hypothesis and the Efficiency Structure Hypothesis in the banking industry of The Gambia. Six banks were used in the studies because of their long existence and availability of the data. Financial and income statements of each bank were used to compute the financial indicators ratios, which were requested from the Central Bank of the Gambia. Quarterly data was provided spanning from 2008q1 to 2022q4. Pre-estimation tests were conducted to analyze our data, including descriptive statistics, cross-sectional dependency, slope homogeneity, and unit root test. Pre-estimated tests enabled us to employ both static and dynamic models, comprising the Fixed Effect Model, Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS). Using two dependent variables, ROE and NIM; whereas Concentration ratio and Market Share are our main focus independent variables and a vector of control variables of EAR, LDR, BS, and banks type. The findings support the efficiency structure hypothesis, which demonstrates a positive and significant value across all models. On the other hand, there was no enough evidence to support the StructureConduct Performance Hypothesis during our study. Therefore, we conclude that there is no evidence of collusion in banking industry of The Gambia. Furthermore, all the control variables were found to be positive and significantly contributed to the bank performance. The study also found the dummy variable bank type to be significant. The conventional banks dominate the banking industry's market share in term of profitability, liquidity and capital adequacy; however, the Islamic bank demonstrated to be more efficiency and less risky than their counterpart. This study suggests that policymakers should focus on policies and strategies to promote efficiency and fair competition in the banking industry; and regulators should design policies that are tailored to fit each bank type operations and investment opportunities in the sector of The Gambia. Keywords: Concentration, Market share, Structure-Conduct-Performance and Efficiency Structure hypotheses.
The circular economy development in Tunisia: A performance analysis
This research explores the relationship between Circular Economy Performance (CEP) and economic growth in Tunisia over 1992–2022, emphasizing comparative analysis of pre-Arab spring and post-Arab spring periods. The study makes key contributions: first, a comprehensive econometric analysis of CEP impacts on GDP growth in Tunisia using a multidimensional approach; second, a framework examining how regional political upheavals alter circular economy-growth relationships; third, incorporating human development and capital stock variables for holistic understanding of economic growth determinants in transitional economies. Using Ordinary Least Squares regression, the study analyzes how CEP constructed from four key indicators Renewable Energy Share (final consumption), CO₂ Emissions per capita, Energy Intensity (energy use per unit GDP), and Domestic Material Consumption per capita affects Tunisia's GDP growth alongside Human Development Index, Capital Stock, and Labor Force. The econometric model examines the comparative impact of these variables on economic growth in pre-Arab Spring (1992–2010) and post-Arab Spring (2011–2022) periods to understand how political transition and institutional changes altered relationships between circular economy practices and economic performance. While many studies have examined the relationship between CEP and economic growth in developed countries, confirming a positive relationship, this research applies the framework to Tunisia, where the Arab Spring introduced profound political and economic transformations. The study aims to determine whether circular economy practices contribute positively to Tunisia's economic growth and how this relationship evolved following the Arab Spring revolution. By constructing a comprehensive CEP index from the four environmental and resource efficiency indicators, the study seeks to quantify the economic benefits of circular economy implementation within the context of democratic transition in a North African developing economy. The analysis identifies which specific circular economy components demonstrate the strongest correlation with GDP growth and examines whether political transformation strengthened or weakened these relationships through changing institutional frameworks and policy priorities. Additionally, the study assesses complementary roles of human development, capital stock, and labor force in driving economic growth alongside circular economy practices during periods of political stability versus transition. Findings will provide valuable insights for policymakers in Tunisia and similar developing economies undergoing democratic transitions regarding the economic viability of circular economy adoption and resilience to political and institutional shocks. Keywords: Arab Spring, Circular Economy, Economic Growth, Performance, Political Transition, Tunisia
The intergenerational transmission of earnings and mobility in Türki̇ye
Bu tez, Türkiye'nin belirgin coğrafi farklılıklar ve ekonomik dönüşümlerle karakterize edilen yapısı içinde, Nesiller arası Hareketlilik (NAM), çok boyutlu yoksulluk ve sosyoekonomik eşitsizlik arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemektedir. Mevcut çalışma, çok boyutlu yoksulluk ve teknolojik gelişmeyi bir araya getirerek, Türkiye'deki hareketlilik dinamiklerine daha kapsamlı bir açıklama sunmayı amaçlayan bütüncül bir çerçeve kullanmaktadır. Mevcut tezin, Türkiye'de ebeveyn gelir düzeyi ile çocukların işgücü piyasasındaki başarıları arasındaki ilişkinin ampirik yönünü, Bayesci bir yaklaşım kullanarak analiz etmektedir. Bulgular, çocukların gelirlerinin ebeveynlerinin gelirleriyle olan ilişkisinin, kariyerlerinin orta düzeyinde daha güçlü olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Mevcut tez, aile kaynaklı zorlukların etkisinin yanı sıra, Beceri Yanlı Teknolojik Değişimin (BYTD) nesiller arası hareketlilik üzerindeki etkisini de incelemektedir. Bulgular, BYTD'nin daha yüksek insan sermayesine sahip olanlara—genellikle daha az dezavantajlı hanelerden gelen bireyler—öncelik tanıyarak ekonomik eşitsizliği artırdığını ortaya koymaktadır. Bu teknolojik dönüşümden orantısız bir şekilde fayda sağlayan sosyoekonomik olarak avantajlı ailelerden gelen çocuklar, mevcut eşitsizliklerin sürdürülmesine ve düşük gelirli ailelerden gelen bireylerin hareketliliklerinin sınırlanmasına neden olmaktadır. Bu çalışmanın sonuçları, teknik ilerlemenin getirdiği faydaların adaletsiz dağılımını ve çok boyutlu yoksulluğu ele alan hükümet politikalarının gerekliliğini vurgulamaktadır. Yoksulluk ve teknolojik gelişmenin gelecekteki sosyoekonomik eğilimleri şekillendirdiği Türkiye gibi geçiş ekonomilerinde, yapısal eşitsizliklerin giderilmesi yoluyla daha adil bir kalkınma sağlanabilir ve ekonomik hareketlilik artırılabilir. Bu çalışma, Alkire-Foster yöntemi aracılığıyla, konut, sağlık, eğitim ve temel yaşam standartları gibi önemli boyutlardaki yoksunlukları yansıtan, ulusal düzeyde temsil gücüne sahip verilerle bir Çok Boyutlu Yoksulluk Endeksi (ÇBYE) oluşturmuştur. Ampirik bulgular, yüksek düzeyde çok boyutlu yoksulluğun yukarı yönlü hareketliliği önemli ölçüde kısıtladığını ve konut yoksunluğu ile çocukların gelirleri arasında güçlü bir negatif korelasyon bulunduğunu göstermektedir. Ayrıca, aşırı yoksul hanelerden gelen çocuklar, yalnızca anlık finansal fırsat eksikliği yaşamakla kalmayıp, aynı zamanda uzun vadeli sosyoekonomik ilerleme açısından ciddi engellerle karşı karşıya kalmaktadır.
Renewable electricity consumption and economic growth nexus – evidence from high-, middle- and low-income countries
Recent decades have witnessed growing concerns over sources of energy consumption and their role in economic development. Renewable energy and electrification have been touted by experts as a solution to mitigate these global issues. Considering this, the study investigates the intricate relationship between economic growth and renewable electricity consumption between the years 2000 to 2021 across a diverse spectrum of countries categorized by income levels. Renewable electricity consumption and economic growth data was collected for 48 countries. These countries were then further divided according to their income levels. The current study examines the relationship between renewable electricity consumption and economic growth through the lens of four distinct perspectives: the feedback hypothesis, the neutrality hypothesis, the growth hypothesis, and the conservation hypothesis. The Panel ARDL methods including the PMG, MG and DFE were employed to explore the presence of cointegration and the impact of renewable electricity usage on economic growth. The outcome of the methods indicate clearly that green electricity usage has a positive impact on economic growth across all income levels albeit at varying magnitudes. The findings contribute to the understanding of sustainable development and energy policies tailored to the specific economic contexts of countries at various income levels. Keywords: Renewable Electricity, Economic Growth, Panel ARDL
Understanding the causes of child labor and its sectoral distribution in Turkey
Both in world and in Turkey, child labor still continues to be a major problem. The nature of describing the causes of this issue is complex. However, this dissertation focuses on the causes of child labor and its sectoral distribution in Turkey. In this focus, this thesis explains that the causes of child labor using probit and weighted probit models with several factors such as characteristics of households, children related factors, demographic decomposition of household and spatial factors. Moreover, multinomial logit model is used to which sectors are considerably affected by these factors.
Trends of financial allocations for The Kurdistan Regional Government of The Iraq federal budget
The imbalance in Iraq's federal budget after 2003 was mostly an estimated not a real deficit. The real deficit is the actual or nominal deficit adjusted for inflation's effect on the debt. In particular the real deficit equals the nominal deficit minus the inflation rate time the total debt in a given year. The significant escalation in public revenues as a result of the increase in oil prices and exported quantities exceeded estimates. Consequently, the accumulation of foreign reserves increased. Another reason for reducing or eliminating the deficit in the budget could be the incomplete implementation of the public expenditures because of the poor execution and delay in approving the budget. That ultimately led to a surplus in the general budget and foreign reserves. Thus, it can state that the deficit in the public budget caused by lower oil revenues and the increase in public expenditures. The allocation of a fixed share of 17% of the federal budget to the Kurdistan Regional Government led to tremendous economic development during the period from 2003 to 2014. However, from 2014 to 2018, the federal government cut (stopped sending) Kurdistan's allocation from the federal budget, which affected negatively on the region's economic growth. This study aims to clarify the operational and investment allocations for federal budgets and elucidate the operational and investment assignments to the Kurdistan Regional Government. Also, it seeks to identify the feasibility of the Kurdistan Regional Government's commitment to the federal budget law. Furthermore, it evaluates the negative and positive impacts of the lack of responsibility of the Kurdistan regional government to abide by the federal budget law. Iraq and the Kurdistan Region are the central areas of the study, and the first period is from 2006 to 2018. The most relevant results that this study came up are the followings: 1. The oil sector is the primary source of the financial funding of the federal budget and also in attracting foreign currency to assist in advancing economic development. Oil revenues were (42287900) million dinars in the (2006) and increased to (77160392.64) million dinars in 2018). That is because: (A) The Iraqi economy relies on the oil sector to finance the federal budget. (B) The drop in the price of oil in 2016 was because of the emergence of shale oil. (C) OPEC's insistence on the same amount of production for maintaining its hare in the world oil market. 2. While the contribution of investment expenditure reached 18.19% in (2006), it increased to %23.56 in 2018. Even though these proportions in the investment agreement, there is no tangible presence on the ground of prosperity and development. That indicates that there is a waste in the money allocated for investment and not being implemented. As a result of financial and administrative corruption. 3. The regional government abides the federal budget law from 2006 to 2013, which led to the development of the infrastructure and services to the residence of the region and increased economic well-being. However, Kurdistan's government did not abide by the law of the federal budget from 2014 to 2018. That resulted in the loss of expenditure investment (21934640.89 million) and the paralysis of thousands of investment projects in the region. According to the results of the study, the following recommendations made:- 1 - Cleansing the state agencies, even at a high level, from corruption and mischief in Iraq and the Kurdistan region. Avoiding, ultimately, all forms of nepotism in executing small and enormous projects. Improving the managerial performance of the entire state agencies and enhancing their abilities. Encouraging the spirit of transparency and accountability for achieving the principle of equal opportunities and respecting the law. That is all to maintain public and private money. 2- Decreasing the spending at the expense of the operational budget in Iraq and the Kurdistan Region. Increasing the expenditure at the expense of the investment budget because it contributes really to achieving economic development. 3- Diversifying the sources of public revenues, particularly tax revenues, finding an effective tax system in Iraq and the Kurdistan region. 4- the responsibility of all the minister in ninth Cabinet to head towards the agreement with the federal government for ensuring public expenditure (operational expenditure and investment expenditure) General Budget, Public Expenditure, Iraqi Economy, Total Revenues. Keywords:
Essays on the rebound effects of the energy efficiency
The industry contributes the most to the world's energy savings in all sectors through more efficient energy use (IEA, 2018). Yet, the literature provides evidences that the potential Energy Efficiency (EE) savings in the industry are not fully achieved. The gap between the potential EE measures and the actual implemented measures is called "energy efficiency gap" and might offset the increase in energy savings. In this thesis, we firstly measure the size of energy efficiency gap, resulted from the energy efficiency improvements (EEI) aiming to save electricity and heat within the fourteen sub-sectors in the Turkish industry. Secondly, we reveal the reasons for the energy efficiency gap by focusing on behavioural and organizational responses to EEI the Turkish industry. To this end, we developed a questionnaire, which consists of questions that if the implementer of an EEI considers a factor as a barrier and driver. We conducted a questionnaire survey with 135 industrial enterprises that have completed at least one state-funded Efficiency Improvement Project (EIP). 86 of them responded to the survey. The results show that the energy intensity level and scale of enterprises take the lead in the importance of perceived barriers and drivers. The findings also suggest that the average scores of the perceived barriers in Small and Medium-sized Enterprises [SMEs] are mostly higher than those in Large-sized enterprises [LEs]. This finding reveals that the tendency of considering a factor as a barrier diminishes as the scale becomes larger. Finally, we applied the PLS-SEM methodology to the primary data. Specifically, the results demonstrate that increasing awareness, improving techno-economic capability, reinforcing subsidies and incentives, mitigating economy, information, and competence-related issues would result in improving EE. If the performances of EIPs, sectoral experiences, and good practices about them, energy conservation opportunities through them are shared among the firms, EE improves.
Pricing behavior in a dynamic duopoly: An experimental study
This thesis experimentally explores the two pricing equilibria proposed by Maskin and Tirole (1988b): monopoly pricing via tacit collusion (kinked demand equilibrium) and the Edgeworth cycle. We designed a laboratory experiment, precisely following Maskin and Tirole (1988b), involving an alternating-move duopoly game in which subjects decide on the price level. Three treatments are conducted, differing in initial price and discount rate as the experiment parameters. Kinked demand equilibrium is tested as the null hypothesis and is rejected by price responses collected from the experiment. We also observe that the Edgeworth cycle is not prominent in the data to its fullest extent. The results reveal myopic pricing behavior, with subjects predominantly lowering prices to undercut rivals. Furthermore, convergence to the low markup equilibrium is common in almost all treatments. Therefore, participants primarily follow a myopic Bertrand strategy, resulting in a low markup equilibrium over the marginal cost.
Constructing fragility indices for islamic banks: Definition impact on the predictive power of an early warning system
This study examines the Early Warning Systems (EWSs) based on banking sector fragility indices (BSFIs) for Islamic banks. To this aim, we construct various BSFIs for Islamic banks and detect EWS models which will produce substantial predictive power results for Islamic banking crises utilizing data from 81 banks in 12 countries over a recent time period 2008-2018. We provide solid BSFI definitions for Islamic banks by discovering the significant risk factors and their proxies to improve the predictive performance of the EWS models. We examine the impact of BSFI definitions on the predictive power of EWS models through constructing various indices. The definitions of BSFIs differ both in terms the risk factors that Islamic banks are exposed to and, the proxies to measure those risk factors. Our results suggest that different BSFI definitions identify different indicators of Islamic banking crises. The predictive power of an Early Warning System (EWS) for Islamic banks is highly sensitive to the definition of BSFIs.
Economic growth in Iran from the gender perspective
Feminist economics which emerged during women's movement in the nineteenth century has developed the concept of gender relations in the various aspects of social and economic life. It challenges the male-dominated economic methods and questions why women have been ignored in economic activities and seeks to improve the economic situation of women. In traditional economy, domestic work which is the cheapest and most difficult phase of production has been considered as a woman task. However, women have the largest share of world unpaid jobs, but their participation of the world's total workforce is more than past years. Some economic analysts like Kenny Dawn argue that if women were hired in jobs with pay, the world's economic situation was much better than the current one. In this thesis we will try to introduce the feminist economics which is a new subject to the literature, gives a new perspective on economic life, make contributions to the feminist movement and examine female prespective on economic approaches. A review of studies up today, mostly reveal that the status of women in the economy has been ignored. Also, in this study, it was aimed to investigate the woman's perspective on the economics. For this purpose, in the first chapter after the concept of feminism is explained, the emergence process of feminism is set forth. Different types of feminist economics theories has formed the second part of study. The last part of the study describes the contribution of feminist economics in the economic and social life and feminist economics point of view regarding the concept of women in the economy has been explained with reference to the views of feminist economists. Actually by means of gender inequality factor, we analyzed the economic growth in Iran. We investigate whether gendered outcomes in labor markets and education have macroeconomic effects and, in particular, whether gender inequality affects the rate of economic growth. Based on the results obtained in this study, it can be argued that reducing gender inequality increases the rate of economic growth. Decreasing gender inequality in employment and education increases the rate of economic growth, in other words, empowering women and increasing the participation of them in economic activities will lead to a high growth rate of economy. Keywords: Economics, Feminism, Feminist Economics, Gender inequality, Growth
Political economy of eurozone debt crisis in the context of varieties of capitalism debate
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, capitalism became the dominant economic system that attracted academia to the subject. While most of the studies on capitalism put "state" at the center of their analysis/theories, the varieties of capitalism (VoC) theory put the firm at the center of its analysis, which made it popular in the last two decades. VoC classifies the economy according to firms' strategy to overcome five spheres where potential problems arise: industrial relations; vocational training and education; corporate governance; inter-firm relations; and employees. VoC also makes a classification of national economies: liberal market, coordinated market, and mixed market economies. This study analyzes the Eurozone debt crisis within the framework of VoC theory and takes the German economy as the case study to link the debt crisis with the national economies and the existing economic and monetary policies of the Eurozone (Economic and Monetary Union, EMU). Germany is examined in terms of its economic characteristics; her role in the establishment of EMU policies; and her response during the Eurozone debt crisis. The scope of analysis is limited to the time period between the establishment of EMU and Eurozone debt crisis, and to the geography of the Eurozone continent (Northern and Southern economies). The methodology of the research is a desk-based analysis of macroeconomic statistical data. The basic argument of this study is that the existing EMU policies are designed to contribute to national economies of the northern countries (coordinated market economies) denoted by the basic macroeconomic indicators and the conclusion of this study concludes that Eurozone debt crisis was a consequence of common policies of Eurozone that neglected the unique peculiarities of member states' economies. The findings of this study suggest that instead of uniformity of economic and monetary policies, unity in diversity would be a better solution to the problems of EU in times of crisis.
An assessment of new regionalism: the case of Turkey
This study analyzes the New Regionalism literature, and evaluates the renewed planning agenda which is assigned for sub-national regions in Turkey by making use of the New Regionalism. For that purpose, initially, the history of regional development planning following the establishment of the Republic of Turkey in 1923 is discussed. Later, New Regionalism is examined, starting with an evaluation of its origins. The main concepts of the literature are introduced, and the severe criticisms raised against it are studied in depth. Today, New Regionalism provides the dominant discourse in regional studies, and contributes drastically to the regional planning agendas of international institutions. The European Union, which has a significant impact on Turkey's political and economic issues, is one of these institutions. Therefore, after the intensified relations with the European Union following the Helsinki Summit, it was inevitable that the literature would penetrate into Turkey's regional development strategies. This thesis searches for exactly these specific regional development strategies which can be grouped under the diffusion of New Regionalism. To this end, some public plans and documents, which are prepared by the State Planning Organization, Small and Medium Enterprises Development Organization, and Ministry of Industry and Trade in the last decade, are covered. The conclusion reached is that, as they are addressed by a step by step evaluation of these plans, most of them are heavily characterized by the New Regionalism literature. This study paves the way for possible future research which will seek to reformulate Turkey's New Regionalist policies, by taking account of the criticisms.
Dinamik makroekonomi üzerine üç makale
Bu tez dinamik makroekonomi ile ilgili üç makaleden oluşmaktadır. Birinci makalede devlet politikası, eğitim ve maaş eşitsizliği arasındaki ilişki Acemoglu (1998, 2002) tarafından kullanılan teorik modellere benzer bir çerçevede incelenmektedir. Teorik modelin analitik çözümü, iki sektörlü ve teknolojik ilerlemenin kar amacıyla icat edilen ve monopolistik rekabet içerisinde satılan yeni teknolojiler ile sağlandığı bir ekonominin desentralize dengesinin optimal olmadığını göstermektedir. Bu çerçevede izlenmesi gereken optimal devlet politikası, sektörlerden birinin görece daha fazla desteklenmesinin ekonomideki göreli fiyatların bozulması ve büyüme oranını düşürmesi nedenleriyle, varolan tüm sektörlerin aynı oranda teşvik edilmesini gerektirmektedir. İkinci makalede merkez bankası bağımsızlığı ve enflasyon arasındaki ilişki hem empirik hem de teorik çerçevede incelenmektedir. Empirik analiz sonunda bu iki makroekonomik değişken arasında doğrusal olmayan bir ilişkinin varlığı gözlenmektedir. Bu gözlemin teorik dinamiklerinin incelenmesi için oyuncularının merkez bankası ve devlet olduğu bir oyun teorisi modeli kurulmuş ve oyuncular arasında mali genişlemenin maaliyetine ilişkin bilgi asimetrisinin varlığının bu doğrusal olmayan ilişkiyi doğuracak unsurlardan biri olabilieceği gösterilmiştir. Üçüncü makalede European Social Survey veritabanından yararlanılarak Avrupa ülkelerindeki nesillerarası eğitimsel hareketlilik dinamikleri empiric olarak incelenmiştir. Ekonometrik analiz sonuçları eğitimsel hareketlilik trendlerinin ülke, nesil, cinsiyet ve aile yapısına göre farklılaştığını göstermiştir.
Three essays on the dynamics of global financial contagion: A macroeconomic analysis of intangible capital
The dissertation intricately explores the global economic responses to shocks with a nuanced focus on capital structures across different geographies. The first chapter examines the recovery patterns post-economic shocks, revealing how disparities in tangible and intangible capital ownership impact economic outcomes. A significant emphasis is placed on the distinction between core regions rich in intangible assets, such as R\&D, and peripheries dependent on external capital and burdened with knowledge rent obligations. Chapter two delves deeper into the mechanics of financial shocks within a globalized framework, employing a two-country macroeconomic model to distinguish between core and periphery economies. Our research indicates that intangible assets, serving as stable collateral, respond more robustly to economic shocks than traditional physical forms. Moreover, the study highlights the complex transmission mechanisms of productivity and leverage shocks, revealing that while the financial sector effectively assimilates the positive economic outcomes resulting from a productivity shock, leverage shocks, despite depleting capital, paradoxically stimulate overall economic output. In the third chapter, empirical methods test theoretical models to scrutinize the transmission mechanisms of macroeconomic shocks and their impacts on advanced versus emerging economies. This analysis supports a profound relationship between the proportion of intangible to tangible capital and an economy's ability to withstand financial shocks. Economies with lower shares of intangible capital showcase increased susceptibility, particularly to monetary and leverage shocks, reinforcing the disproportionate effects experienced in peripheral regions.
Gender and business performance in Turkey: Evidence from World Bank enterprise survey
In this paper, gender gaps in business performance between women and men shared, owned or led businesses in Turkey are analyzed, using the World Bank Enterprise Survey Data of 2019. We estimate the differences by Ordinary Least Squares regression. The main findings show that women shared and led firms perform better in sales revenue and profits while women owners have significantly worse sales revenue outcomes. In addition, firms led by women tend to grow significantly less than men-led firms. As an indicator of efficiency, value added is used and among our findings we see that while women shared firms are more efficient, there are no gender differences for managers and owners. Part of the reason why women shared firms perform better is that, women sharers concentrate on sectors that are bigger in sales revenue and more efficient. Further, we find women shared firms to be more likely to apply for loans, and no gender differences for managers and owners.
Politicians, parties, and tenure: How public procurements are affected in Turkey on municipality level
This research uses the Difference-in-Differences method to study the impact of a ruling party change in a metropolitan municipality on procurements. Municipalities with a change in the ruling party were compared with the others according to the procurement contract data from Turkey. Results show that cities with newly elected mayors perform better than others in most parameters. They use competitive and transparent methods more, and additionally make more savings. Little to no differences were found in mechanisms that have been previously associated with abuse of power, but abuse may not be the case in the period that has been inspected in this thesis. Overall, it can be said that the ruling party change resulted in better outcomes in the matter of procurements.
Asymmetric exchange rate pass-through to food prices in Turkey: A NARDL Approach
This paper investigates the asymmetric exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to food prices in Turkey from July 2018 to December 2023 using the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model. The study focuses on key food commodities including veal, lamb, poultry, fish, eggs, and milk. By examining the differential impacts of positive and negative exchange rate changes, as well as the roles of other macroeconomic variables such as oil prices, money supply (M2), and the output gap, this research aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of ERPT dynamics in Turkey. Structural breaks are incorporated to account for significant economic disruptions during the study period. The results reveal significant asymmetries in the pass-through effects, with exchange rate fluctuations exerting a pronounced influence on food prices. Oil prices and money supply also play critical roles, while the output gap shows varying effects across different food categories. These findings have important policy implications for managing food price volatility and ensuring food security in Turkey.
1500'den 2000'e küresel nüfus hareketlerinin analizi
This thesis explores the main reasons behind human mobility since 1500, focusing on the different regional effects of various economic, political, social, and geographic factors. The initial cross-country analysis highlights the significant impact of geographic elements and historical influences on migration. The bilateral data structure in the second analysis allowed us to examine the effects in both source and destination countries at the same time, along with bilateral factors. Three main conclusions emerged from this study. First, migration is influenced by both source and destination countries, requiring an origin-destination framework for accurate historical migration assessment. Second, analyzing deep-rooted factors at the regional level provides more accurate results, as shown by the differences between the Eurasia and Sub-Saharan Africa regions. A global analysis might lead to biased results. Lastly, historical migrations were shaped by complex economic, political, and geographic influences in unique ways. Although often used as natural experiments in economic analysis, colonial migrations are affected by a complex network of factors and need to be considered carefully.
Environmental Kuznets Curve and trade liberalization
This thesis investigates the potential effects of trade liberalization on the functional relationship between pollution and income, namely the Environmental Kuznets Curve, for a sample of 52 developing countries. Using GDP per capita as a measure of income and CO2 emissions per capita as a measure of pollution, this study shows that trade liberalization has a signicant effect on the hypothesized relationship. Our results indicate that pre-liberalization period is characterized by a linear relationship. However, trade liberalization does not induce the pattern towards an inverted U-shaped relation. Instead, it accelerates income driven pollution. This finding is in line with the pollution haven hypothesis which claims that trade liberalization can be a trigerring factor in the relocation of the dirty industries via foreign direct investment (FDI) from the developed countries to the developing countries where the environmental standards are relatively less strict
Türk bankacılık sektöründe finansal teknoloji ürünleri: Müşteri kullanımı üzerine inceleme
Finans ve teknoloji dünyasının gelişimi ve birleşimi beraberinde finansal teknoloji kavramını ortaya çıkarmıştır. Finansal teknoloji ile finansal hizmetler, teknolojiyle gerçekleştirilebilmekte ve bu kavram her geçen gün yaygınlaşmaktadır. Finans sektörünün en güçlü aktörlerinden bankacılık sektörü de gelişim ve değişimle birlikte, geleneksel bankacılık ürünlerinin yerini finansal teknoloji ürünlerine bırakmaya başlamıştır. Genel araştırmalarda dijital bankacılık ürünleri araştırılırken bu çalışmada; Türk bankacılık sektöründeki ürünlerden, müşterilerin finansal teknoloji ürün tercihlerini ve bu tercihleri doğrultusunda ürün kullanımlarını ele almaktadır. Nitel araştırma yöntemlerinden görüşme tekniği kullanılarak, aktif banka müşterilerinin bankacılıktaki finansal teknoloji ürün tercihleri tespit edilmiş, müşteri ürün kullanım detayları incelenmiştir. Müşterilerin ürünleri tercih etme nedenlerinin çoğunlukla hız, kolaylık, zaman ve para tasarrufu olduğu görülmektedir. Ek olarak müşterilerin finansal teknoloji ürünlerini güvenli bulma durumunda çoğunluğun kullanımı güvenli bulduğu tespit edilmiştir. Bu tercihlerin bankacılık sektöründe yarattığı durumlara; sektördeki teknolojik gelişim, operasyonel masrafların azalması gibi durumlar açısından olumlu bakılırken, şubelerin azalarak çalışan sayısının düşmesi ve benzeri durumlar olumsuz olarak değerlendirilmektedir. Tüm araştırma ve değerlendirmeler sonucunda, müşterilerin yeni finansal teknoloji ürünlerine dair görüşleri de dikkate alınarak ürünlerin gelişimi için önerilerde bulunulmuştur.
Global sürdürülebilirlik hedeflerine yönelik blokzincir teknolojisi çözümleri ve uygulamaları
Bu araştırma günümüzün devrimsel bilgi ve iletişim teknolojilerinden birisi olan blokzincir teknolojisinin kurumların global sürdürülebilir kalkınma hedeflerine yönelik amaçlarına aracılık edebilmesine yönelik yapılmış bir çalışmadır. Günümüzde önemi daha fazla hissedilen sürdürülebilirliğin sosyal, çevresel ve yönetimsel başlıkları gerek hükümetler gerek organizasyonlar ve gerekse kar amacı güden ticari kurumlar tarafından somut bir şekilde ele alınmaktadır. Özellikle de son dönemde kanun koyucular piyasaları yönlendirme gücü olan banka ve yatırım şirketleri gibi fon sağlayıcılarını kullanarak global sürdürülebilirlik hedeflerine çok daha hızlı ulaşılması ve anlamlı bir yol verilebilmesi için çeşitli çalışmalar yürütmektedir. AB taksonomisi bu konudaki öncülerden olup Türkiye'de Çevre ve Şehircilik Bakanlığının oluşturduğu iklim kanunu; Türkiye Yeşil Taksonomi buna örnektir. Bu noktada sürdürülebilirlik hedeflerine ulaşım aşamalarında güvenilirlik, şeffaflık, merkeziyetsizlik ve izlenebilirlik özellikleri ile ön plana çıkan blokzincir teknolojisi araç olmakta, dünya genelinde bu alandaki uygulamalar giderek çoğalmaktadır. Blokzincir kripto ekonomisinin çok daha ötelerine uzanan diğer yapay zeka, nesnelerin interneti (IoT) başta olmak üzere birçok teknoloji ile uyumlanarak klasik süreçlere göre verimliliği arttıran, maliyetleri azaltan, bugünün ve geleceğin teknolojisi olarak çok önemli olduğu kabul görmektedir. Bu çalışmada blokzincir teknolojisinin çalışma mantığından ve genel olarak hangi alanlarda kullanıldığından bahsedilmiş olup, ardından sürdürülebilirlik hedeflerine ulaşmak üzere karbon emisyon ticareti, yeşil ekonomi, ReFi (Onarıcı Finansman) ve döngüsel ekonomi gibi önemli başlıklarda blokzincir teknolojisinin kullanıldığı proje örneklerine yer verilmiştir. Ayrıca son olarak Türkiye'deki şirketler üzerinde bu konulardaki farkındalığı ölçen anket çalışması ve sonuçları yer almaktadır. Bu anlamda Türkiye'de bu bilgilerin ve teknolojik altyapılarının yetersiz olduğu bunun çözümüne yönelik birçok kamu ve özel sektörün acil eylem planı oluşturması gerektiği önerilmektedir.
Factors affecting SMEs production in Turkey: A panel data analysis
In developed and developing economies Small and Medium Sized Enterprises (SMEs) play significant roles as in Turkey. In this perspective 99.8% of the total number of enterpreunerships, 73.5% of total employment and 57.8% of GDP belongs to SMEs. Nevertheless in Turkey most of studies about SMEs do not use micro data because of lack of data. The aim of our study is explaining the variable production of SMEs with independent variables number of employees, export value and spending in R&D in TL with micro data taken from TUIK. 86 firms are tested with balanced panel data. Since most of firms have no export or R&D department number of firms decrease. After appliying fixed and random effect models Hausman Test is performed. The results show that only number of employees is significant.
The welfare effects of changes in global food prices on income distribution in Turkey
This study examines the pass-through effects of global food prices on food prices in Turkey, and the welfare effects of food price changes on income distribution in Turkey. Food products are the indispensable part of the consumption basket for entire households, especially for low-income groups. Therefore, food price changes can directly influence the living conditions of people positively or adversely. To figure out these impacts in Turkey, we first obtain the pass-through coefficients for the selected food groups using econometric tools. Then, we integrate these coefficients and Turkish household groups, which are divided into five brackets based upon nominal income, into the CGE analysis. This analysis allows us to estimate how an economy can react to changes in a part of the economy under the determined framework. Finally, we apply both a positive 5% shock and a negative 5% shock to world food prices. According to the findings, the income of all household groups declines when global food prices surge. However, rising food prices have a more adverse effect on low-income household groups, and accordingly distort income distribution in Turkey. Inversely, under the scenario wherein world food prices decline, low-income households are affected more positively in wealth terms. It is observed that income distribution in Turkey recovers slightly. Meanwhile, disruptive impact of increased food prices is stronger than remedial impact of tumbled prices on income distribution.
Redesigning the high school placement mechanism in Turkey
In this thesis, we study the placement mechanism used for matching eight grade students and high schools in Turkey. We observe that the mechanism does not satisfy the most desirable properties such as individual rationality, strategy-proofness, respecting improvement, non-wastefulness, and fairness. In order for the system to have the desired properties, students must be able to present their original preferences. However, in the current system, this is not possible due to preference restrictions. Our approach is to improve the students' welfare by redesigning the mechanism.
Comparing systemic risk measures during a financial crash
This paper investigates 2000 Turkish Banking Crisis utilizing market based and network based systemic risk measures. In this investigation, MES, SRISK and ΔCoVaR are taken as market based measures whereas Degree centrality, Closeness centrality and Betweenness centrality are evaluated as financial network measures. The analyses are performed for 12 Turkish Banks and the performance of the inherently different systemic risk measures in identifying and detecting the stress of the banking sector are compared with an event study. The findings suggest that different systemic risk measures point out different systemically important financial institutions (SIFI). Empirically, we derive that (1) SRISK is capable of capturing a too-connected-to-fail bank, Demirbank, despite its market based nature and that (2) MES is the only measure providing statistically significant results for market, too-connected-to-fail banks and too-big-to-fail banks together.
Macro stress testing on the credit risk of the banking sector in Turkey
In our thesis research we conduct a stress test of banking sector in Turkey. Firstly, we develop a model where we regress total and sectoral NPL rates on their lags and macroeconomic indicators. By using the results of the regression we conduct stress tests. As stress test scenarios we use 3 cases. We analyze how the NPL rates of Turkish banking sector would respond to the 2001 and 2008 crisis scenarios and we also look at baseline scenario based on the expectation of OECD on Turkish economy. Based on the results of stress test, not all of the banks in Turkey meet the capital adequacy ratio requirement and under the 2008 crisis scenario total NPL rates rise up to 6.07\%. Our sectoral regressions suggest that while our macroeconomic variables are all significant in defining the total NPL rates, some sectoral NPL rates do not necessarily depend on all of them.