Modelling mode choice decision of freight transportation based on logistics cost model in a ground transportation corridor

Freight transportation is a crucial sector for national economies. Planning freight transportation appropriately influenced not only determining correct investment area but also the factors, which positively affects living conditions, such as environment, trade and economy.Because highway transportation has been mostly used for freight transportation in our country, a number of negative impacts have occured, such as increased traffic accidents and air pollution. Primary goal in planning of nation-wide transportation system is to utilize all of the available modes in equilibrium. In order to be able to give priority to intermodal modes instead of highway mode alone in freight transportation, it is crucial to know which factors take place in mode-choice decisions. If these factors are determined and improvements are made accordingly, it is likely that the mode choice decisions in the future would be in favour of intermodal transportation.In this study, freight transportation system was undertaken within the context of logistics chain and analyzed by logistics cost model. For modelling mode choice decision, three logit models for different data were developed and used. In calibration process of the models, logistics regression analysis method of multivariate statistical analysis technique was used. In the analysis, data related with the ceramics transported to the city of Antalya and its surrounding area by highway and intermodal modes were used. These data were obtained in a survey conducted in 2006 with 14 ceramic merchants in Antalya. The model with the maximum forecast performance was chosen as the logit mode-choice model based on logistics cost determined according to preferences of the receiver. After sensitivity analysis carried out, for the chosen model, the most important factors for highway and intermodal freight transportation decision were determined as being the transportation cost, transportation time and transshipment delay. In conclusion, for increasing intermodal freight transportation preferences, short, medium and long term policies for changing these factors were proposed, such as encouraging the private sector to have their own railcars, and providing flexible price policy depending on product type and volume.