Brown bear (Ursus arctos Linnaeus 1758) human conflict risk region: Ilgaz district example

The brown bear (Ursus arctos Linnaeus, 1758) is a large mammal species present across several regions of Turkiye, often causing conflicts near human settlements. This study analyzes the temporal and spatial patterns of brown bear attacks on beehives recorded between 2023 and 2024 in Ilgaz district of Çankırı province. Data were collected through official reports, citizen notifications, and field observations, and were evaluated using spatial analysis and decision tree modeling. A total of 69 beehive attacks were examined, with incidents peaking in may and june, and particularly during the waxing and first quarter phases of the Moon. Conflict locations were mostly situated near forest edges, agricultural areas, and human settlements. The decision tree model predicted the occurrence of bear attacks with 88% accuracy, identifying human footprint, slope, distance to village roads, topographic position index, and elevation as key variables. These attacks caused considerable economic losses, averaging 11,659 Turkish Lira (TL) per incident. The findings highlight that habitat features, land use, and human presence are critical in determining conflict risks. The study emphasizes the need for physical deterrents, public awareness, and the expansion of conservation zones to mitigate bear-human conflicts. The results provide a basis for informed conflict management strategies that integrate both ecological and socio-economic dimensions, particularly in rural areas where local livelihoods are at risk.