Risk analysis and risk management in wheat production: A case of Ankara province, Polatli district

Agricultural enterprises face many risks in the process from production to marketing in terms of factors such as the dependence of production on natural conditions and changes in market conditions. These risks, which cause losses in production, cause instability in the income of enterprises. The decrease in the incomes of the producers negatively affects the sustainability of agricultural enterprises. For this reason, although it is not possible to completely eliminate the risks that may occur in agricultural production, these risks need to be reduced and managed. In order to reduce the risks that may occur in production, risks should be determined and measures should be taken. In this study, risk analysis was carried out in wheat production, which is a strategic product, in Ankara province Polatlı district. The data of the research were obtained as a result of face-to-face surveys with 70 producers. Stratified random sampling method was used to determine the agricultural holdings. According to this method, businesses were examined in 3 groups. 1st group enterprises have 10-59 decares, 2nd group enterprises 60-99 decares, 3rd group enterprises have a land size of 100 decares or more. According to the Fine-Kinney Risk Analysis Method, natural, economic and social risks that are likely to occur were determined. Accordingly, the most common natural risks faced by the surveyed enterprises are drought, insufficient precipitation, hail, pests and frost. Social risks; technological development, lack of organization and difficulty in finding non-family labor. Economic risks are increase in input prices, insufficient support and incentives, instability in product prices, changes in product yield and insufficient farm capital. Measures to be taken against these risk factors are specified.