Earthquake risk assessment of Çanakkale and its vicinity

Probabilistic earthquake risk analysis is carried out for four sub-regions associated with the earthquake epicentr distribution and surface fault segments covering Çanakkale and its vicinity. a and b coefficients are calculated using relationship. Earthquake occurrence intervals and recurrence periods have been estimated by using statistical distribution models that Poisson and Gumbel Extreme Values. Distribution maps of a, b and a/b values have been estimated for destructive earthquakes those might be occur in the study area. In general, a/b has relatively lower values and b values are in the range of 1.0 and 1.15. These results give a clue for earthquake occurrence risk in the region which covers Gelibolu-Tekirdağ-Batı Marmara Sea. The earthquake occurrence risk is estimated as %46 from Poisson distribution and %71 from Gumbel distribution in the period of 100 years. High b values have been calculated at 0 ? 20 km depths, which might be explained by energy released zones. Those depths may also been specified as seismogenic zone.Keywords: Çanakkale, earthquake risk, Poisson distribution, Gumbel distribution.