Mathematical modeling of the spread of the covid-19 infectious disease in Turkey

The destructive epidemic of the rapidly evolving worldwide infectious disease of the novel coronavirus (nCovid-19) in 2019 has revealed the importance of reliable predictive mathematical models. Results from such mathematical models significantly influence the use of intervention measures and the management of medical resources, enabling an understanding of the current state of the disease and the prediction of future scenarios. Therefore, mathematical models are of critically importance. In this thesis, some proposed mathematical models for nCovid-19 are given. In addition, a new SEIRD differential dynamic model has been proposed for the analysis and prediction of the spread of nCovid-19 in Turkey, using the official data of the Ministry of Health of the Republic of Turkey announced by the World Health Organization. In this study, issues such as equilibrium analysis and stability of the system and basic reproduction number (R0) are also discussed. Routh-Hurwitz and Lyapunov stability theories are used for stability analysis. The proposed model is flexible and can be quickly adapted to monitor various epidemic scenarios. Numerical results are also given using MATLAB software to verify that the proposed model fits the data correctly and makes reliable predictions.