Statistical and numerical analysis of the spread of covid-19 outbreak: A case study in Çhina

The Covid-19 epidemic, which emerged in Wuhan, China towards the end of December 2019 and affected the whole world in a short time, has been the focus of attention of many researchers. Many mathematical models have been developed to predict and analyze the spread of the epidemic. In many countries, the epidemic has been considered statistically and theoretically, and predictions have been made about the future of the epidemic. In this thesis, many statistical analyses such as diagrams, Pearson correlation, and regression analysis have been presented during the epidemic in China between December 22, 2021, and December 13, 2022, and predictions have been made about the epidemic in the country. Then, a mathematical model dealing with the spread of the Covid-19 epidemic has been considered and the positivity of the solutions of the model has been examined. These models with classical derivatives have been modified with different fractional derivatives. The method based on Newton polynomial has been used for the numerical solutions of these modified models. Numerical simulations for different fractional orders of each class of the model are presented.