Duzce province electricity energy demand forecast

Energy is the capacity or ability of a system to do work. Energy is an important source of life in today's world civilization. Energy has been one of the indispensable needs of our lives from the past to the present. Electrical energy is actively used in industrial zones, businesses and residences. Since electrical energy cannot be stored, estimating the electrical energy demand is important in terms of operational and financial planning. It is seen that the need for electrical energy is increasing rapidly day by day with the increasing population, the development of technology and the increase in production. In this increase, it is necessary to estimate the required electrical energy to meet the supply- demand balance. In this way, unnecessary costs of electrical energy will be avoided. In this study, electrical energy demand estimation was realized for the electricity demand of Düzce province by using EPDK (Enerji Piyasası Düzenleme Kurumu) data. Time series models ARIMA, TBATS and Prophet methods were used to estimate. The estimation results of the methods used were examined and compared with each other. As a result of our study, it was seen that the ARIMA method in general, and the TBATS and Prophet method in some months gave better results. Estimating the electrical energy to be consumed in the coming months for Düzce will provide an advantage in determining the amount of electrical energy to be demanded. If it is less than the amount to be consumed, interruptions may occur. In order to prevent this situation, it is important to work on estimating electrical energy consumption for the future.