Estimation of electrical energy consumption with regressiontechnique: The case of Şanlıurfa province

With the growing industry and rapidly increasing population in Turkey, the need for energy is also increasing day by day. It is very important for our country to achieve a supply-demand balance in order to better manage external dependency. For this, it is important to predict energy demand in advance. If demand is greater than supply, various problems and interruptions will occur due to energy deficit. If supply is greater than demand, waste due to storage problems may occur and this may negatively affect the country economically. At this point, demand estimationis a key point in achieving balance. In order to strengthen the country's economy and meet the needs of the society, it is an important need to make estimations for the future periods. In this study, 24-month data covering the years 2022 and 2023 for Şanlıurfa province was used. These data include the number of subscribers, electricity consumption, average temperature, precipitation, sunshine duration, relative humidity and natural gas consumption data. The relationships between electricity consumption and other factors were investigated using the data of the 24-month period. The subscriber groups with the highest share in the total electricity consumption of Şanlıurfa province are agricultural irrigation, residential and commercial subscriber groups, respectively. In this study, regression models are presented for these subscriber groups, which make up approximately 96% of the total consumption. Finally, the validities of the established estimation models were tested using the first 5 months of 2024 data and the results were interpreted. The estimation deviation in the commercial group was approximately 7%. The deviations of the agricultural irrigation and residential groups are higher.