Fuzzy multi-criteria evaluation of energy alternatives and a road map for Turkey

Energy has vital importance both for continuity of life and the sustainability of economy. Balancing of the energy policies of countries has effect on public health, environment protection and social issues. For this reason, these and many other criteria should be considered in a selection among energy alternatives. Since all these criteria can not be expressed in numerical format during the evaluation process, the use of a variety of mathematical and engineering techniques is required. Thus linguistic criteria which can not be expressed numerically are considered when getting results and the result is based on mathematical background. In this thesis, an integrated multi-criteria decision-making method is used for selection among energy alternatives in order to create a roadmap for Turkey. Fuzzy logic is used in order to consider the uncertainties in the process of evaluation. Along with determining qualitative and quantitative criteria, energy alternatives used in Turkey are evaluated and the alternatives that are more appropriate to select as near the top are tried to obtain. While calculating the weights of the criteria a multi-criteria decision-making method named AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) is used with type-2 fuzzy sets. In the stage of ranking alternatives, TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) multi criteria decision making method is used with type-2 fuzzy sets again. After that, by using the similar criteria, renewable energy alternatives are evaluatedto obtain a roadmap for Turkey. After obtaining the rankings alternatives, the sensitivity analysis performed and different scenarios are compared with the current results. The sensitivity analysis is applied for all energy sources first, and then it is applied only for renewable energy sources. According to the results the energy alternatives to be invested in the coming years in Turkey are evaluated. Thus a roadmap for Turkey is created.