Evaluating COVID-19 conspiracy theories as narrative arguments

The COVID-19 pandemic spawned several conspiracy theories (CTs) that have been problematized with respect to their apparent irrationality, implausibility and lack of argumentative merit. However, contrary to this view I argue that some COVID-19 CTs may have a degree of plausibility and that people who adhere to them are not unreasonable or irrational. To defend this position, I begin by formulating a new theoretical framework for the evaluation of CTs in general, with a particular focus on their narrative characteristics. I argue that the credibility of CTs may rest on a form of rationality and process of reasoning that are particular to narratives themselves. This is contrary to the view in the literature which claims that the narrative nature of CTs impedes critical thinking. In terms of COVID-19 CTs, I argue that they operate as narratives that utilise values in order to problematize the motives of powerful elites and to provide reasons for audiences to suspect a conspiracy. I analyse three online COVID-19 CTs through the development of a multi-level qualitative framework that incorporates analytical techniques from a multi-disciplinary perspective that involves narrative, rhetoric, and discourse analysis. My analysis indicates that there are two types of CT. The first type is concerned primarily with the motives of antagonists and their level of agency, which are features that can be discerned from the formal structure and coherence (internal and external) of the narrative. The second type, adds the element of values as argumentative premises, and these are utilised by prominent COVID-19 CTs. However, contrary to some theoretical approaches, my normative framework deems no narrative as plausible based on fidelity to values alone. Plausibility and cogency, according to my model, requires that the narrative be both internally and externally coherent. Keywords: argumentation, conspiracy theories, COVID-19, values, narrative rationality, Walter Fisher.