False readiness theory and bilateral and third-party peace processes: Mediated and non-mediated dyads in comparative perspective

This study investigates the role of False Readiness in peace processes, particularly focusing on the impact of mediators when at least one party is not genuinely committed to peace. The study employs a mixed-method approach, combining Information Theory for Comparative Case Analysis and Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA), to examine ten peace processes from five conflicts: Northern Ireland, Basque, Colombian, Sri Lankan, and South Sudanese. The research is grounded in the False Readiness Theory (FRT), which posits that parties may engage in deceptive negotiations to buy time, extract concessions, or avoid appearing weak. It begins with a comprehensive literature review, covering negotiation, mediation, deception, and rational choice theories. It then delves into the methodological framework, explaining the use of Information Theory metrics and QCA to analyze the selected case studies. The study identifies several confounding and explanatory conditions, such as violence during the peace process, power asymmetry, and the presence of a mediator, to understand their impact on the likelihood of False Readiness. The findings reveal that the presence of a mediator does not necessarily increase the likelihood of False Readiness, contradicting the initial hypothesis. Instead, the study finds that maximalist preferences and the failure to reach or implement a final agreement are significant indicators of False Readiness. The thesis also highlights the importance of understanding the strategic use of deception in peace processes and the need for mediators to address these dynamics effectively. Through detailed process tracing of selected cases, the thesis provides a nuanced understanding of how False Readiness manifests in peace negotiations and offers policy recommendations for mediators and policymakers. The study concludes by emphasizing the need for further research on the role of deception in conflict resolution and the development of more precise indicators for False Readiness.