The model recommendation and it's design related to running seamans into industry

Personnel shortage is one of the most important problems of the maritime industry. If we look at world maritime industry globally, it is recognised that the supply of seafarers is greather than demand and the demand for officers is greather than supply. The aim of this work is to forecast the future demand of officers working actively on Turkish flag ships and foreign flag ships which are owned by Turkish shipowners. It is also aimed to determine the boundaries of officer shortage and to make recommendations to solve the officer shortage problem by comparing officer demand of Turkish flag and officier supply of Turkey. In this context, the relation between world economic data (Gross domestic product, import/export, gross domestic product per person) and Turkish fleet deadweight tonnage was analised by constructing lineer and nonlinear regression equations. Best economic data set which explains variation in the Turkish fleet significantly, was selected by using ?Maritime Manpower Forcasting Algorithm (GAPA)? which was produced in the context of thesis. Turkish fleet deadweight tonnage and officer demand were forecasted till the year 2010. Then, officer demand of Turkish fleet and officer supply of Turkey was compared and supply/demand balance was determined. Recommendations for officer shortage were done in the light of results.