The relationship between some of operational variables and stock prices at airlines: The case of Turkish Airlines

There are many factors affecting stock price. The stock price of a company varies by the effect of these factors. One of these factors is operational performance of the company. Furthermore, determining these factors affecting stock price will be an important determinant in the decision to be taken by both management and investors and it will assist to forecast the future movement of the stock price. Therefore, the relationship between some of the operational performance indicators and the stock price of airlines is tried to be analyzed empirically by using Toda & Yamamoto and Hatemi-J causality tests. For this purpose, it has been selected as a data set including the stock price of Turkish Airlines and number of landings, available seat km, revenue passenger km, load factor, number of passengers and cargo-mail ton variables between 2011 and 2020 on monthly basis. As a result of Toda Yamamoto (1995) analysis, it was determined single direction causality from the stock price towards the other variables except the cargo-mail ton variable. In addition, single direction causality has been determined from the cargo-mail ton towards the stock price. As a result of Hatami-J (2012) analysis, single direction causality relationship from negative shocks in stock price to negative shocks in revenue passanger km was determined at 5% significance level. Likewise, single direction causality at the 5% significance level was concluded from negative shocks in the stock price to negative shocks in the load factor. Causality at the 5% significance level has been determined from negative shocks in the available seat km to negative shocks in stock prices.