"Export-led growth hypothesis: An econometric analysis on Kyrgyzstan (2000-2014)"

In the rapidly developing global world, relations between exchange rate, export, import and economic growth (GDP) are discussed in the economic literature in order to obtain information about the economic structure of an country and to make forecasts for the future. Therefore, the purpose of this study, which is based on Kyrgyzstan's data and this country has recently examined the relationship between these variables by taking into consideration the exchange rate, export unit value, import unit value and economic growth (GDP) variables for 2000-2014 period. In the aim of this study, VAR analysis was performed to perform Johansen cointegration test, Impact-Response function, Variance decomposition analysis, Granger causality test. According to the results of the Granger causality analysis, it is found that there is a bi-directional causality relation between economic growth and export of Kyrgyzstan. The increase in exports increases the demand for goods and services produced in one country, thereby increasing the production of more goods and services. In the context of these doctrines, in the period covered in this study, findings are support of the export-led growth hypothesis emerged in accordance with the literature in the analysis for Kyrgyzstan.