Analysis of damage and loss caused by potential floods due to climate change on the building stock using a spatial finance approach: The case of Eskişehir

This dissertation aims to estimate the potential losses in the building stock caused by climate change-induced flood hazards in the city center of Eskişehir and to evaluate these losses using Value at Risk (VaR), a financial risk measurement tool. In the study, future precipitation data were derived from global climate models, and flood hazards were analyzed under different emission scenarios. Flood predictions were carried out through peak discharge calculations based on rainfall-runoff parameters, and potential losses in the building stock were determined using depth-damage coefficient. The results were integrated with the VaR method through a spatial finance approach. Under the Q100 scenario, it was determined that 1,611 buildings are exposed to potential flood hazards. Among these buildings, 1,486 are residential, 116 are commercial, and 9 are industrial structures. The total monetary loss caused by potential flooding was calculated as 3,629,522,320 TRY, of which 2,276,440,939 TRY is attributed to residential buildings, 1,349,844,589 TRY to commercial buildings, and 3,236,792 TRY to industrial structures. In the SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 emission scenarios, flood probabilities were calculated using exponential functions, modeling that flood impacts decrease exponentially with increasing distance from the Porsuk River and Sarısu Stream. Under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, the VaR was determined as 509,053,340 TRY, while it was 16,179,641 TRY under the SSP2-4.5 scenario. The VaR results, calculated with a 95% confidence level, indicate that the probability of flood-induced losses exceeding these thresholds is only 5%. This dissertation represents one of the first applications of the spatial finance approach in Turkey and is expected to make a significant contribution to the field.