Investigation of the relationships of ionospheric total electron content and radon concentration with earthquakes by ARIMA and Monte Carlo simulation

The aim of this study is to explore the potential relationship between earthquakes, Radon (Rn), and Total Electron Content (TEC) in the atmosphere, and to provide data and information for the early detection of potential earthquakes in order to reduce human and material losses. It is known that there is generally a linear relationship between soil Rn gas and earthquakes. Additionally, correlations between earthquakes and Ionospheric TEC are also known. Thus, it can be assumed that there is a relationship between earthquakes, Rn, and TEC. In this study, Cross Correlations were examined to identify anomalies in TEC and Rn values prior to earthquake occurrences. It was observed that forecasts could be made using the ARIMA model. Monte Carlo Simulation was applied to assess the uncertainty in the obtained models' results. Forecasting studies were conducted using ARIMA and Monte Carlo Simulations, and new models, time series, and algorithms were developed by obtaining radon and TEC data for unknown time periods (where radon and TEC data were not available). Furthermore, the relationships between earthquakes and meteorological parameters were examined, and significant correlations were found. Lastly, by calculating the probability densities of Rn, TEC, and earthquake magnitudes, the probabilities of earthquakes within the research area were predicted based on magnitude.