Assesing the probable effects of Izmir Karşiyaka-Uckuyular Bridge Project ion population distribution using Hansen model

Karsiyaka-Uckuyular Bridge Project has been suggested to solve Izmir?s transportation problems since the 1990s. However, there has been no empirical study conducted to assess its probable effects on urban population distribution. This study aims to assess these probable effects on urban population distribution using the Hansen Model. The first chapter of the study includes a background of the project summarizing the discussions about the project on the published media. The applicability of Karsiyaka-Uckuyular Bridge Project is also briefly discussed with reference to the applications worldwide. The second chapter explains the Hansen Model and its applications in the literature. The third chapter presents data sources manipulation and descriptive statistics. The next chapter includes calibration of the model and projections, and presents the results. The final chapter concludes the study. Data for İzmir metropolitan area pertaining to 1990 and 2010 are used to calibrate the single parameter in the model, the distance effect parameter. The distance effect parameter is estimated as 1.75. Distribution of urban population is estimated under two scenarios, with and without the Karsiyaka-Uckuyular Bridge. The presence of the bridge alters the distance matrix in the model. The two set of results from the two scenarios are compared. The model results show that the urban population increase in Bornova and Güzelbahce?s will be higher with the bridge scenario compared to the case with no the bridge scenario. The results are vice verse for Buca, Çiğli and Gaziemir.