Investigation of the effect of urban area growth on value change in rural areas using geographical information system: Konya example

Türkiye is in the category of developing countries in terms of its riches. With the increasing population, the need for urban areas increases day by day in Turkey as well as in the world. The increase in urban areas affects rural areas. The need for land arises, causing agricultural areas on the city periphery to become urban soil. The expectation of urban land regulation of these areas is reflected in the market value of the land. In fact, although there is no change in the usage method and physical conditions, an increase in rent is observed in the purchase-sale value in line with the expectation principle. The purpose of this study; It is to estimate the increase in value arising from expectations that do not physically exist and its effect on the total value. In order to measure the effect of convergence due to the growth of the city in rural areas, Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), which is one of the Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods, Best and Worst Method (BWM) and Multiple Linear Regression Analysis (MRA) methods, which are among the statistical methods, were used. The Lower Pınarbaşı, Yukarı Pınarbaşı and Sarıcalar neighborhoods of Selçuklu, the central district of Konya, were determined as the application area. 5 basic criteria were used in the application using Geographic Information Systems (GIS). These criteria are transportation, parcel characteristics, distance to the center, agricultural status and zoning status. In all three methods, the zoning status criterion has the highest weight among the criteria. 235 sample parcels with known prices were used. The total number of parcels in the study area consists of 2419 parcels. Considering the performance values, it seems that the most suitable method is MRA. R2 value is 0.7705. As a result of the study, AHP and BWM methods, which are MCDM methods, were applied according to expert opinion. According to the results obtained from these methods, it has been observed that the expectations have a high impact on the value due to the effect of some plans that have gained urban area characteristics. However, as a result of MRA modeling with market values, it was concluded that these expectations did not actually increase the value of the land sufficiently. This situation reveals that the value increases resulting from the plans are not taken into account sufficiently under market conditions. Key Words: Master development plan, urban area, plan, real estate valuation, rural area valuation, expectation principle, Multiple Decision Making.