The long-run causal effects of the emigration of Crimean and Nogay Turks on the urbanization and agricultural outcomes of Turkey: An empirical analysis

The purpose of this thesis is to investigate the long-term causal effects of the emigration of the Crimean and Nogay Turks on the urbanization and agricultural outcomes of Turkey. To estimate the long-term causal effects of emigrants, a novel dataset at province level consisting of six years between 1928 and 1965 is constructed by digitalizing the Agricultural Yearbooks and Population Censuses of Turkey. In addition to baseline the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) methods, Instrumental variable methods are employed to address potential endogeneity problem. The results reveal that the emigration of Crimean and Nogay Turks had a positive and significant long-term effects on urbanization rate, per capita cultivated land, per capita total agricultural production, per capita cultivated area of grain, per capita grain production and per capita industrial crops production.