The effect of macroeconomic variables on bist bank index; An application on the years 2009-2018

The increasing globalization phenomenon and the technological developments affected many sectors, the banking sector has undoubtedly taken its share from the emerging new economic process. With this change and development, banks are adding a new function to their functions day by day, increasing their profits and this acceleration of the sector makes bank returns increasingly important. In this new economic model, banks are not only increasing their profits with their returns that they diversified but also taking on new important roles and attracting attention as the most important economic units in economic life. Therefore, it is very important to explain the relationship between the return of the sector and the possible macroeconomic variables that likely to affect this return. In this study, in which the econometric application was made for the effect of macroeconomic variables on BIST Bank Index; as a market indicator of the banking sector, the linear relationship between the macroeconomic variables and the three-month XBANK index closing values of 13 banks traded in Borsa Istanbul in the period of 2009:1Q- 2018:3Q have been examined. In the model, 20 different independent variables were determined as macroeconomic variables. Besides the literature applications in the selection of variables, the selection was made according to the relationships between the variables, the frequencies of publication and being associated with a dependent variable. The selected variables were determined to be stationary or not and stabilizing according to the most appropriate difference model, it has been optimized for analysis. By being tested the basic assumptions of the multivariate linear regression model in stages, it is provided that the model optimized. Obtained regression equation revealed that the Borsa İstanbul Bank Index (XBANK) affected the following variables: REPUBLIC GOLD, GSYIH, GDENGE, CREDIT, M1, SUE, UFE, USD, EXPORT. It was determined that a change in these variables could affect the XBANK index and the model had a power of description % 53,1, that the model was statistically significant as a whole, and that it provided multivariate linear regression assumptions. Key Words: Banking Sector, Financial Return, BIST 10 Bank Return Index, Macroeconomic Factors