Seismic activity zones Manisa and seismic hazard analysis for Manisa

In the seismic risk assessments of Manisa city it is accepted that earthquakes which their locations are more than 100 km away from the Manisa center have negligible effects on the city center. Therefore, 6 seismic sub-regions were considered in the analyzes. The considered sub-regions have different seismotectonic characteristics and locations of sub-regions are located close to the center of the province (≤100 km). Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency relationship, seismic risk estimates and recurrency periods are determined for each sub-region separately. Earthquake records (mw≥4.0) belonging to both of instrumental period (1900 –2015) and historical period (before 1900) were used in calculations. In the analyzes, the magnitude-frequency correlation coefficients a and b were determined to be 3.36 ± 0.13 -4.90 ± 0.41 and 0.45 ± 0.02 -0.68 ± 0.07, respectively. Seismic source-to-field distance probability distributions are calculated for each sub-regions. The analysis showed that Sub-regions (2), (4) and (5) have more destructive earthquake effects for the Manica city center than Sub-regions (1), (3) and (6).