Natural disasters in the context of national security risk: A research on Türkiye's earthquake management policies

Natural disasters have been on the rise in recent years, adversely affecting the lives of millions of people and causing deaths, injuries, property losses and serious destruction. In addition to these known devastating effects, natural disasters have the potential to cause national security risks including economic, administrative and other areas. The main problem of this study is to investigate whether natural disasters and especially earthquakes are defined as a national security risk in Turkey within the framework of key policy documents. In this context, it is discussed whether there has been a paradigm shift in this regard in the pre- and post-AFAD period. The risks that earthquakes may pose for national security are discussed under four main headings: destruction of infrastructure (urban structures, transportation networks, energy infrastructure, communication, nuclear, water and sewage services), destruction of superstructure (education and health facilities, human capital, factories and production facilities), economic losses (agriculture, tourism, financial sector, trade, development and economic growth) and disruption of public order (border security, migration, intelligence, international aid). As a result of the content analysis, it has been observed that Turkey's main disaster management policy documents mostly (88%) emphasize traditional disaster damages, while risks in the dimension of national security are included in a more limited way (12%). However, only one action could be identified that directly establishes the relationship between earthquakes and national security. This shows that physical and direct damages are prioritized in disaster management documents; however, strategic security risks of disasters such as transportation and communication infrastructure, human capital, economic development, agriculture and tourism, public order and disinformation are not adequately covered. This finding indicates that disaster management in Turkey needs to evolve to a more holistic approach with a national security perspective.