The relationship between population and economic development: The case of Turey (1938-1999)

In the literature of development economics there are three major views regarding the relation between population and economic development. In the transition theory, economic development speeds up the population growth in the short run, therefore per capita income and social welfare decrease. In the long run, decreasing in the birth rate due to economic development population growth decreases and per capita income increases. In the orthodox theory rapid population growth is a major factor limiting economic development. In the revisionist approach large population enables to reach scale economies and motivates the economic development. The purpose of this study is to determine the relation between population and economic development from 1938 to 1999 in Turkey. For this purpose, theories concerning population and economic development, and the long run and short run effects of population growth on the economic and social indicators firstly are being analyzed. Then, literature regarding dynamic short run and long run relation between population and economic development is being presented. Afterwards, population trends starting from the beginning to the present and their impact on the social and economic structure are being analyzed. Finally, an econometric study is being applied for the Turkish data from 1938 to 1999. Based on the results obtained from this study, there is no any long run relation between population and economic development in Turkey. There are simple one way causality between these two variables and causality is running from economic growth to population. IX