Mobility of the middle income class to low income and high income the case of Türkiye: (2018-2021)

This study contributes to the literature by examining mobility within the middle-income group in Turkey. In this sense, the aim of the study is to present the profile of the middle-income class in Turkey and to demonstrate the impact of middle-income group mobility on income distribution and income inequality. It identifies the effects of socio-economic and demographic factors on transitions from the middle-income group to the low-income and high-income groups using a probit model. The middle class has been defined using relative income criteria. The data used in the analyses were obtained from the Income and Living Conditions Surveys (ILCS) conducted by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) for the period 2018-2021. The analysis shows that factors such as age, gender, education level, marital status, employment status, and financial deprivation affect the transition of the middle-income group to either the low-income group or the high-income group in different ways. Younger household members and higher education levels among household members negatively impact the likelihood of transitioning from the middle-income class to the low-income group. Conversely, these factors positively affect the transition to the high-income group. Age and gender have complex effects on economic transitions. Keywords: Probit model, middle income, income mobility