Future forecasting of urban growth in Osmaniye province and examination in terms of sustainable land management

Constantly increasing urban populations reveal the need for new areas to live. It has been determined that one of the biggest obstacles to meeting this need is wrong land use practices. Urban growth simulation models are frequently used to overcome these problems. In this thesis, the urban growth forecast for Osmaniye was made using the SLEUTH model for 2029 and 2039. The urban growth forecast was obtained by classifying the satellite images of 1999, 2009 and 2019 and processing these images in the SLEUTH model. Scenarios was examined under two headings, which are about the effect of public investments on urbanization (Scenario 1 and Scenario 4) and about the effects of urbanization on the villages of the central district (Scenario 2 and Scenario 3). According to the study, for the target years of 2029 and 2039, 1791.62 ha and 5688.93 ha in Scenario 1, 1438.31 ha and 4130.01 ha in Scenario 2, 999.43 ha and 2534.36 ha in Scenario 3, and 1310.9 ha and 4127.32 ha in Scenario 4 will become urbanized. In scenario 1, it was observed that the urbanization pressure was higher for Akyar and Dereobası villages in Fakıuşağı district compared to other scenarios. In addition, the change in the agricultural and forest lands of the target years was predicted in the study. Even in Scenario 3, where agriculture and forest areas are most protected, it has been determined that 37% of agricultural areas and 25% of forest areas will be destroyed by 2039.