The paradigm shift in Turkish foreign policy: Turkish power projection in Syria, Libya, and Azerbaijan

Turkish foreign policy has changed in the years of 2015-2016 to such a degree that we talk of a paradigm shift, as since 2016, Turkish foreign policy has become increasingly assertive, and a clear difference with the periods before is the use of unilateral force by Turkey beyond its territorial borders. Before the paradigm shift, the use of force was executed through multilateral frameworks, with the exceptions of Cyprus 1974, and counter-terror operations in northern Iraq. As Turkish power projection has become increasingly important as part of Turkish foreign policy in the post-2016 era, it is critical to understand its drivers, methods, and implications. By first defining power projection and the related concepts in international relations and understanding the reasons that led to the paradigm shift, we will explore how Turkish power projection emerged and how it materialized in the real world in the theaters of Syria, Libya, and Azerbaijan. We will also look at the case of the Turkish intervention in Cyprus in 1974 to provide a historically comparative perspective. By looking at these cases one will have a better understanding of Turkish foreign policy at present. As the drivers, methods, and implications of Turkish power projection remains understudied, a comprehensive and holistic framework which combines the existing literature with the historical contexts of Turkish foreign policy will shed much-needed light on Turkish power projection at present. The result is deeper insight into the behavioral responses in Turkish foreign policy.