Analysis of the impact of oil price fluctuations on Iraq's public budget

This research examines the central role of oil in the Iraqi economy and the impact of international oil prices on Iraq's public budget. Oil is considered the main source of national income production and a fundamental element of foreign currency supply for Iraq. The study presents a comparative analysis covering the period from 2004 to 2020. The primary objective of this research is to evaluate the effects of oil price fluctuations on Iraq's public budget. In this context, the impacts of oil revenues on budget deficits and surpluses have been examined in detail. The data collection process is based on information obtained from various ministries and decision-making bodies of the Iraqi government. Methodologically, the study relies on statistical analyses. Various statistical programs have been utilized to determine the relationships between variables. This approach has allowed for a systematic examination of the complex relationships between oil prices, export performance, and budget indicators. The research results reveal that oil revenues constitute the largest component of Iraq's public revenues. This indicates a high level of dependence on oil revenues for financing budget expenditures. The analysis demonstrates a direct relationship between oil price fluctuations and the surplus ratio in the Iraqi budget. It has been determined that increases in oil prices have a significant impact on the Iraqi budget. Furthermore, it has been established that Iraq's export performance also has a significant effect on the budget. In conclusion, this research emphasizes the importance of understanding the nature of oil price fluctuations and optimizing budget management accordingly. The findings of the study provide important implications for the development of Iraq's economic policies and the improvement of budget planning.