Prediction of final football league standings by dynamic frontier estimation

Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is a commonly used method for efficiency assessment of teams in many sports including football. In this work, we investigate how estimations of final football league standings with DEA efficiency measures evolve as the season progresses using Turkish first division football league data for five seasons. After the conclusion of each week, a DEA analysis is run using available data until then, and computed efficiencies are used to estimate the final table standings. While the estimates fluctuate early in the season, they tend to stabilize after several weeks. Tracking the weekly progress of the results may give the teams a chance to finish in a better position by focusing on their inefficiencies. Furthermore, the choice of the DEA linear programming model makes a difference in the quality of the results. Estimations are improved by using a model that incorporates expert knowledge about football.